Oct. 5, 2026

Ep. 1992: The Enemy Is Us

The biggest drag on an investment portfolio may be the investor. Don and Tom examine the behavior gap—the difference between what investments earn and what people actually keep after fear, greed, overconfidence, and badly timed decisions take their toll. They explain why market timing so often means selling after prices fall and returning only after the recovery is obvious. Missing even a handful of the market's best days can dramatically reduce long-term wealth, while a disciplined plan helps keep emotion from becoming strategy. Listener questions cover whether a well-funded retiree should increase stock exposure, the cost of hiring a professional trustee, and what to do with a small whole-life policy purchased in childhood. 1:30 Financial Physics Rule 12 3:06 The investor behavior gap 5:33 The emotional cycle of investing 7:57 Overconfidence and money 9:58 The cost of missing the best days 16:00 Should retirement risk increase with age? 19:25 What professional trustees cost 22:28 Cashing out childhood life insurance

Questions? Comments? Click!

00:38 - Grandkids in the Studio

01:28 - Emotions Drive Investing

07:57 - Overconfidence and Risk

11:20 - Staying Invested Pays

16:00 - Retirement Risk Questions

19:33 - Trusts and Trustee Costs

22:27 - Cashing In Old Life Insurance

25:45 - Wrap-Up and Disclosure

SPEAKER_02

Well, before we get started. Hi, welcome to Talking

Grandkids in the Studio

SPEAKER_02

Real Money. I'll get to that in a minute. My grandkids were here over the uh the weekend.

SPEAKER_04

I noticed the dials look different. They'll put them down. I'm sure that's a good idea.

SPEAKER_02

No, it literally is. I I had to talk to my grandson. I go, you can't just go in there and play with the studio. Because I come in to go on the show this morning, and I have a roadcaster that has all kinds of little gadgets and gizmos on it. And and I come in and I get on my mic.

SPEAKER_03

Mike, and this is what I hear. Which is an improvement, I gotta say.

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I like that one.

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Uh so I went, oh, it's this button.

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Yeah. It's a voice changing button.

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I can see why they might have fun with that.

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They like that voice. They don't like this for this one.

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No, that voice is scary.

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That one scares little kids. I mean, one's five, one's eight, but they totally adore

Emotions Drive Investing

SPEAKER_02

this voice.

SPEAKER_03

That's really a good one, yeah. Anyway.

SPEAKER_02

So, um, before you get all emotional. We're gonna talk today about the financial physics rule number what? 12? 12.

SPEAKER_04

This is 12.

SPEAKER_02

Today we're talking about emotions, and Tom is reading from the good book of financial physics, written by some guy named Don McDonald many, many moons ago, Tom.

SPEAKER_04

The author makes a very good point at the outset of this chapter, which I think everyone should listen to. I mean everyone, whether you're in the business, whether you're an investor, thinking about investing.

SPEAKER_02

Hold on. Hold on a second. Everyone needs to listen. Listen now. Okay. Just wanted to make sure they were paying attention.

SPEAKER_04

Here's what it says. In the first paragraph, the author writes As investors, we consistently earn less money on our investment portfolios than the returns from the investments themselves. Think that is for just a moment.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, it's called investor returns.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, the actual amount that people make is less than what the investment makes. Over and over and over again. And most of it, sadly, you know, some of it's due to fees, sure. Some of it's due to people thinking they're gonna be really smart about the future. But most of it, most of it, is because of the doggone our own behavior. We've seen the enemy and the enemy's us.

SPEAKER_02

It's called, they call it in the vernacular, in the trades, in the academic research, the behavior gap. The behavior gap. Uh I mean, on on average, Morningstar found that over the the ten years ending December 31st of 2025, that mutual funds or growth funds earned about 10% annually over ten years. The average investor earned about eight point seven percent annually.

SPEAKER_04

Which is getting better. If you remember the old doll bar store studies, it used to be like more than like three percent difference between so this is a little over a one percent difference. How come? Well, the author says this is because of our lack of reason. Uh we get emotionally involved. And now this whole field, as you said, behavioral is it's it's a study. It's a it's a you can get a graduate degree in behavioral finance. I'm hoping my daughter, who's now focused on the city of the city.

SPEAKER_02

Well, actually, that would be a really, really great niche for her because that's probably financially more lucrative than being a uh a psychologist or a social worker.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah. Yeah. Think it through. I mean, wasn't there that gal on I think it was on billions or succession, one of those, that was coaching the brokers, the investment analyst. Oh, the psychologist. The psychologist, yeah. She was making a pretty good idea.

SPEAKER_02

That was on billions, and she was married to uh the district or the U.S. attorney.

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That's right.

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Yeah. Mr.

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Giamatti.

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Yes.

SPEAKER_04

Paul Giamatti. This is just a fascinating thing. Um because if you ask people, they're going to say no. I always ask people after I see them buying and selling, are you a market timer? No, I'm not a market timer. Because that's a bad word.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah. Well, what are you then?

SPEAKER_04

Well, and then you say, So why are you doing this? And they'll say, Oh, because it was so obvious that X, Y equals Z. It just it everybody knows that. And that decision inevitably is an emotional one, not an intellectual one. It's it's because we feel a certain way, and we get caught up in the um the author refers to the emotional cycle of investing and not the bicycle, the cycle of investing, which I think is right on. You get everyone gets very excited when things are going up and gets very depressed when things have gone down.

SPEAKER_02

And that's the thing, is that what we do is it's it's a it's a it actually is a cycle. You can chart it, you can track it. It's got this euphoria that happens when the market has risen for a long period of time. People get euphoric and they get really excited, and then it starts to fall, but the euphoria doesn't fall with the market. It persists for a while, it doesn't kick in. The the negative emotions, the fear, don't kick in until it's fallen precipitously. And then generally the fear and the selling peak somewhere near the bottom or or right after the bottom, and people get out forever, and then they don't get back in again until it has already proven itself to have risen over another long period of time, leaving you effectively out for the highs and in for the lows, which is backward.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, and it gets worse. I mean, there are many people that just never get in because of the risk aversion they suffer from. In other words, they look at the they look at stocks and say, well, those go up and down, and every day it's this and this and this. And by the way, on a day-by-day ratio, it's just a few more days that are up and then they're down. I mean, it is uh uh if you look at it that minutely, it's a problem. And then people end up doing what I call losing money safely. That is, they're either in checking money in checking accounts or savings accounts at Bank of America, which are still paying 0.01. And we've been saying that for like 10 years now. And so what's going on here? Well, every day as the price of bread and gas, I can I say gas have gone up, you're losing money because the cost of those things is increasing and you're not making any money on your money to make up for that difference in the price.

SPEAKER_02

And by the way, I misspoke when I talked about the Morning Star study for 10 years through 2025. Yes. Uh that 9.9 was for all funds and ETFs, all of them.

SPEAKER_04

Okay. The whole market.

SPEAKER_02

So it was 9.9 versus 8.7. For stock funds, it was better, actually. The the gap was much better. It was 13.3 for all U.S. stock funds versus 12.8.

SPEAKER_04

The market made and people their returns were 12.8, so a half a percent difference. Right. But half a percent over a long period of time, you know, can be problematic too. Um,

Overconfidence and Risk

SPEAKER_04

that's one part of the emotions. Then the other one, as the author correctly points out, which has always fascinated me. Men believe that they're, when it comes to money, smarter than women. It just I should be in control because I don't know what I'm talking about.

SPEAKER_02

You sound sexist, but hey guys, have you checked your uh hormones lately? They're very different than women's. Women, your hormones are different than ours. It's just a fact. And it's part of it. Those hormones are a big part of what drives that overconfidence. Trevor Burrus, Jr.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah. Women tend to buy things and hold them longer. Men tend to either buy really dumb things and hold them longer or turn around and sell them very quickly. Um, and yes, men suffer from overconfidence. I love this line in here. I I did you steal this from me? Um, in survey after survey, we rate ourselves as above average drivers of more than ordinary intelligence or better than average lovers. That's right there. I'm trying to do that.

SPEAKER_02

I did do that when I was younger, but I don't do that anymore.

SPEAKER_04

Oh, you've underrated yourself now.

SPEAKER_02

Um I've been I've been downgraded.

SPEAKER_04

Downgraded. So this is something that didn't did not get the attention of advisors, of investors, frankly, of anybody money related until about 25 or 30 years ago. Really wasn't.

SPEAKER_02

That was when Zwag came out with his book.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah. It was really not a thing. Um here's something else to consider when we're talking about the emotions. Right now, most people, and I know we live in a somewhat unsettled time politically, maybe economically, but most people feel good because stocks have gone up for a long time. Yet the risk is higher now. It's always backwards emotionally. You should be feeling like because stocks have gone up a lot. So the I the idea is at some point, because we've had how many years of oh, that's right. If if if the SP holds this year to be the first time in history, it's gone up double digits four years in a row.

SPEAKER_02

And by the way, you mentioned earlier the fact that uh we we lose money safely. That was a quote. Yep. We lose money safely by trying to be out of the bad days. Trying to be out of the bad days has turned out to be a really terrible strategy. Over the last 40 years, if you stayed totally invested in the SP 500, I'm just gonna use that as a as a proxy for stocks. Because I, you know, it's the easiest one to find information on. If you had invested steadily over the last 40 years, you were always invested in the S P five hundred, you put 10,000 in 40 years ago and let it grow. Didn't do a darn thing. Six hundred and ninety-seven thousand dollars. Almost, let's say you got out, you you brilliantly got out in two thousand eight. Yep. Well, some of the very best days occurred in 2008, actually. In the year two in the fall of 2008, we had some great days. 2009, we had some great days. If you were out, if you just over that 40 years, you had pulled out a few times and you missed the 10 best days. You just, oh, I missed the 10 best days. Darn me. What was I thinking? You had less than half as much money at the end of 40 years.

SPEAKER_04

That's just 10 days. Half as much. $300,000.

Staying Invested Pays

SPEAKER_04

The people that study these things, in addition to the ones that Don just quoted, Vanguard, for example, Vanguard does an advisor survey. They look at returns of people that use a fee-only, 100% fiduciary advisor, build a plan, write asset allocation, and stay with the plan through the good and the bad. Those people end up with uh somewhere around 3% more per year because primarily of the investor behavior part, of the fact that you have an advisor, times are bad. It's the yes, it's the fall of 2008, and whoa, this looks really, and I got to do something. Um, no, you don't. You have to stay the course. Vanguard's survey says that. And I go back, by the way, Don, to the beginnings of this particular iteration of our broadcast careers. If you think back to when we started on the radio with Talking Real Money, I think it was 15 years ago or so. Remember the number one question we got? The number one question for a long time was do you remember? You don't remember, you're looking quizzical. No, I I no I just came into X amount of money. What do you think?

SPEAKER_02

Well, that's always been the number one question.

SPEAKER_04

Now what do I do with it now?

SPEAKER_02

In this particular market, given the market, yeah.

SPEAKER_04

Well, I wouldn't want to do anything now because the market's at an all-time high. Or stocks are way down. I wouldn't want to do anything now.

SPEAKER_02

Not until they start to show some signs of going up again. The problem is, is once they show signs of going in either direction, you your signs generally are, well, after it's already really bad, I'll get out. And after it's already really good, I'll get in. That's wrong. You want to get in when it's terrible. That's when you want to buy. You want to buy when was it somebody said Blood on the Streets.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, Blood on the Streets, yeah.

SPEAKER_02

One of the famous could have been Buffett, but I don't know. Buffett is kind of like Mark Twain. We just attribute everything to him. It's somebody said something smart is probably Mark Twain or or Jimmy Buffett. Oh, Ron Buffett. Jimmy Buffett. Jimmy Buffett. Well, he said something about Margaritaville, and you know, he wasted.

SPEAKER_04

You get the Margaritaville portfolio? Sure, why not?

SPEAKER_02

Anyway, yeah. I live close to Margarita Village. You do? Yeah. I forgot where I was going with all the things that I've got to do.

SPEAKER_04

No, the point is exactly that. That we do have a tendency to think about the now, and it seems so obvious that this is people tell me that all the time. This is going to happen. Nobody knows that. Number two is we do let our emotions rule us when it comes to money. What is it? Food, sex, and something else that it really is about the emotions, not about the intellect. Survey after survey shows.

SPEAKER_02

And we know that food sex and money.

SPEAKER_04

Food sex. Maybe that was it. Um, all three have gotten me in trouble. And the reality is for those people that build the right portfolio, take the ups and downs. Somehow, somehow, they get rid of the emotions. By the way, I've told people to do things as weird as write down how you feel at this moment, put it away so that when the market's the opposite, you'll look at that and go, oh God, remember, I was just delusional. Um, and I'm delusional again. Whatever way you can deal with it, you end up with more money. That's the bottom line.

SPEAKER_02

And that, okay, but here's the problem. You people have historically, as far back as we can really track good information, which is about a hundred years that we have great information. About as far back as we can track it, we can pretty much tell you that if you didn't do anything and just invested, you did pretty well. And the numbers say you did better than most other people who tried to beat the market. Therefore, accept being average. Our problem is we hate average. We cannot stand thinking of ourselves as merely average, and therefore, we cannot stand the idea of just letting our portfolio be average when we're above average and should be able to beat the market. You can't do it. Stop thinking you can. You are delusional. Oh, but I have over the past 10 years, over the past 20 years. Ever hear of a little thing called luck? It it exists. Coincidences? They actually happen sometimes.

unknown

Huh.

SPEAKER_02

Anyway, got questions about this kind of stuff or any other money stuff? Well, just send them in. Type them in at talkingrealmoney.com on the ask a question form or speak them in on the uh same website, talkingrealmoney.com, with the mic button. And if you type them in, Tom gets them and has a field day printing things on paper. Do it again, Tom. Print

Retirement Risk Questions

SPEAKER_02

some paper.

SPEAKER_04

Thank you. Thank you for for sending us these questions. Roger from Salem, South Carolina. He's 75 years old, debt-free, $12,000 a month plus in pension and Social Security, is an assets of a $2 million IRA and a $1 million Roth. He's currently 40% in stock, 60% in bonds. His question. Could we start increasing our stock allocation and reducing bond allocation, thus increasing risks, since we have made it in uh this far in retirement? If not, what age can we do this, i.e. 80, he says, because he's 75. Reducing bond exposure. Yes, increase we we've touched on this topic previously.

SPEAKER_02

Well, here's what uh one of the one of the problems I have with this is what's the goal? Yeah, thank you. Why are you increasing risk? Is it because you've you you're in a contest and you think you might win because you're gonna have more money than anybody else in the world? Well, congratulations, but on being that optimistic, but you're not gonna win. Uh is it to leave your kids more money? Uh what's the reason? Why? I really would like to know the why. I I I don't see a big advantage in doing that unless you know for uh uh an absolute fact that you have an ironclad stomach. That if your portfolio that's now worth three million goes down to two million in a really terrible market, you know for a fact you're not gonna panic and do anything stupid like we just talked about. Let your emotions get control of you. I just the question I would like to know is is why? Yeah, I think that's good. What is the good thing? I'm not gonna make my portfolio more aggressive as I get older. Even if I'm not living off of it, I'm not gonna do it. What why? Why would I want to take more risk when I didn't need to? Aaron Ross Powell, Jr.

SPEAKER_04

We talk to people on a regular basis who, as they get older, generally want to be more conservative, not just because of the fact they're pulling on it, but just because they're more conservative as they get older. It's just they don't like the ups and downs. So here's an idea.

SPEAKER_02

But the ups and downs feel good. If you have the right mindset, they feel good when you're young. Yeah. The volatility feels good. It's like, I'm making a lot of money, oh, it's going down. I'm buying more for less. That's good. As you get older, volatility doesn't feel as good. Trevor Burrus, Jr.

SPEAKER_04

No. Here's an idea, by the way. If if this is truly about the next generation, which maybe it is, right? Which I, you know, I think that's legit. But here's an ide you could take the two million in the IRA and still manage that to be 40, 60, 40 percent stocks, 60%.

SPEAKER_02

We go crazy with the Roth.

SPEAKER_04

Go with the Roth. Then just take the Roth and, you know, uh go all equity.

SPEAKER_02

Because you're never gonna touch it. Right.

SPEAKER_04

Stock up on small and value and some of those other places, you know. Really, really uh that would be an idea, but I'm with Don. It's just like we say, uh, why take chances when you don't need to? That's the way I look at it.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah. I mean, it's like, okay, you're you're 75, you've got a nice, practical, safe car that you know can't go uh over 100 miles an hour, and it's got bear bags everywhere and safety systems, and you feel really good, but it's not particularly sexy. So should you, because you've got all this extra money, sell the Honda you're driving and buy a Lamborghini because it can go 200, and you could wrap yourself around a tree and die? Sure. I mean, if you don't mind taking the it just makes no sense. I don't

Trusts and Trustee Costs

SPEAKER_02

know. I'm with you on that one.

SPEAKER_04

All right. Uh Chanel writes us from Carmel, Indiana. Hi, Don and Tom.

SPEAKER_02

That's a lovely town, by the way. Carmel, Indiana is a lovely town. Central, but it's beautiful. It's it's really it's one of the that's listed consistently as one of the best places to live in the country, Carmel, Indiana.

SPEAKER_04

Trevor Burrus, Jr. Okay. Which Indiana doesn't get a lot, so congratulations there. Uh hi, Don and Tom, appreciate your work and educational services you provide us. Does Appello Wealth provide trustee services for family trusts?

SPEAKER_02

I don't think we do, do we? No. No, it requires uh like a bank or somebody to or a trust company to be a trustee.

SPEAKER_04

Trust companies. We've and we used to work with one, you know, which I think.

SPEAKER_02

That's right. You don't have to use a trust company to do that.

SPEAKER_04

Um they're kind of expensive. Uh, the services we've run. So you have to have a fairly large estate or fairly unique situation where you need a trust. My question would be: why do you need a trust company? Do you have properties you need to keep an eye on? Do you need to have, you know, have somebody managing the trust outside of the family? What's the reason behind that qu and by the way, I'm happy to take that off air, too, to see if I could give you some direction. Because as I say, we used to work with a with a guy here in town, I think he retired. I don't so I don't know who we use now, but but um I'd have to see each circumstance would be somewhat different as to using a trust company.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, if you're just using a trustee for pure administration, that's all just to do the paperwork, it runs about half a percent a year.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah. I've seen it up to one and a half, by the way.

SPEAKER_02

Exactly. And and smaller ones uh or a state settlement trusts can run one to two. Uh Schwab does trust work, and they're at a half a percent with a $5,000 annual minimum for its full service trustee service. So if yeah, if at Apella we were we need we had a client who needed a trustee, we might go through somebody like Schwab who offers that trust service. But uh it ain't cheap.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, my guess is worthwhile.

SPEAKER_02

It depends on the situation.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, my it does. And my guess is that this will be a service that we offer eventually. Like the state planning. Eventually we'll have somebody sitting down the hall write to state plans. I can almost guarantee it.

SPEAKER_02

That's the way the industry is going. It's good it's It's all encompassing. I mean, it used to be we did pretty much just investment advice. And it we were an investment advisory firm. Now we're a financial planning and investment advice firm. Tax planning, et cetera. Yeah, I forgot tax planning, lots of that.

SPEAKER_04

So um great question. Uh again, happy to take any of that off the air to get you some specific advice.

SPEAKER_02

Um But we could, if need be, use

Cashing In Old Life Insurance

SPEAKER_02

somebody like Schwab.

SPEAKER_04

Absolutely. Uh from Parsons, Kansas, John writes Hey, Don and Tom, my mother bought me a life insurance policy when I was five years old.

SPEAKER_03

Wow.

SPEAKER_04

I'm now 66, retired, no debt. My wife and I both receive pensions. Question. Would it be an okay idea to cash in the life insurance policy and invest the proceeds in our Vanguard account? The life insurance policy earns about 3.5% interest or dividends yearly. That is a fact. So remember there used to be wasn't it like the Gerber product or something?

SPEAKER_02

Oh yeah, those Gerber baby, the Gerber grow up whole life policies for babies. It's uh the idea that you're not. Now the Gerber policies didn't start until 67. So this couldn't be a Gerber one. It'd have to be somebody else. And those the Gerber policies, I seem to remember them earning like two percent.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah. I mean three and a half.

SPEAKER_02

I would imagine that the death benefit can't be anything significant because so little money was generally put in these, even growing at three percent. It's not gonna be a big cash value, and it certainly isn't gonna be a big enough death benefit to make it worth keeping as a life insurance policy unless you wanted to pay your burial or something.

SPEAKER_04

Well, I'd say get rid of the diapers and move the money over to Vanguard. I don't know. Yeah, I I would just get rid of it.

SPEAKER_02

It's these were these were pretty and what a stupid idea. I just don't on the face of it to me, it just seems like okay, I'm gonna buy a policy, so if my baby dies, I get a check.

SPEAKER_04

So weird. Yeah. I don't get it.

SPEAKER_02

Oh, so your kid can have permanent life when they're older. What? $20,000 policy? $10,000 ball.

SPEAKER_04

So yeah, we wouldn't buy them today, which I don't even know if they're available, which they probably are. Uh because when was the last time insurance companies canceled anything? Because, hey, guess what? I might make a buck doing this. But yeah, I'd probably cash that out, move it to my Vanguard account.

SPEAKER_02

Oh, Gerber still sells it.

SPEAKER_04

Wow. Okay.

SPEAKER_02

Well, let's see. Oh, I want to go look. The Gerber life grow up plan.

SPEAKER_04

So it come with come with a come with a little can of mashed peas as well, or how's that work exactly?

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, they they still do it. Look at that. Isn't that sick?

SPEAKER_04

Kind of figured something like that. You just don't hear about it because it's kind of silly, frankly.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah. The coverage doubles up until age 18. Look at that. Guaranteed coverage for life, no matter what your health is going to be. Oh, well, lovely. Uh to get $5,000 death benefit, you pay four four dollars a month.

SPEAKER_04

How much can I get on you at uh $5,000?

SPEAKER_02

I'm over the age. It's for 14 days through 17 years. You can't buy it for me. I'm past that. I'm I've maxed out.

SPEAKER_04

I don't either.

SPEAKER_02

What else you got for us? Anything? That's it, man. That's it? You're ending the thing on that? On the urbur baby question?

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, I am. So get your bottle and get out of here, man.

SPEAKER_02

Oh, this, you know, there's so much stuff. Let's see. I want to see if there's anything else. 375,000.

Wrap-Up and Disclosure

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, yeah. I think it's about 2% for some reason. Anyway, thanks for listening. Thanks for being here. Thanks for telling friends. And if you haven't done it yet, well, please do. Uh, and if you have questions, go to talkingrealmoney.com, send them in, punch the button that says ask a question. Or, or if you have a bigger question, or you want to talk to Tom about getting a trustee or whatever it might be, or one of our fiduciary advisors, and you're going, I don't really need to hire an advisor, I don't want to pay anybody. But if I go to my broker down the street, he's going to try and sell me a commission product, so I don't want to do that. If you want somebody you really can talk to and get some honest advice and no sales pitch, no high pressure sales pitch, period. Exclamation point. Just go to talkingrealmoney.com, click the button that says meet an advisor, and one of our advisors will meet with you. It's just it's it's a nice service we provide. So do that. Thank you for listening. Stick around every single weekday for, well, some of the best financial conversation on the podcast circuit as we are.

SPEAKER_01

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