Ep. 1973: One Size Fits Nobody
Target-date funds promise a simple glide path from growth to safety—but people with the same retirement date can have completely different needs. Don and Tom compare Vanguard, Fidelity, and BlackRock funds, examine costs and stock-bond mixes, and explain why simple does not mean specific. Then they revisit decades of failed crash predictions from Rich Dad, Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki.
Want more Money Music? Hear extended versions from Don’s fictional AI band, The Financial Fysicist, on Apple Music: https://music.apple.com/us/album/let-the-boring-money-in/6805953759 or Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/album/0G06JEvGsyw6SISfAOxLt6?si=ah2uVVWuQwmxTqjBeta8AQ
01:06 - Elevator Music Guessing Game
02:59 - Target-Date Fund Debate
07:37 - Tuning Glide Paths
13:03 - Kiyosaki’s Crash Predictions
22:27 - Buffered ETFs Explored
27:08 - Cash Buffers in Retirement
31:29 - Podcast Disclosures
Oh, I'm sorry, I was kind of getting into the tune there.
Elevator Music Guessing Game
SPEAKER_02Um, so guess that genre, Tom. What genre is there? You were going to put that out to our studio audience.
SPEAKER_03We cheated. You you you and I had this discussion earlier, so I already know. But I kind of was on it because of the time. I was like, that goes back to like the sixties and seventies. It has that sort of sound to it. But it goes back to the sixties and seventies in specific, specific genre.
SPEAKER_02We're getting really specific in your elevator. So I took out all the top end and the bottom end, so it sounded just like the elevator at uh at the old Nordstrom or whatever. Yeah, whatever it is. Department store elevator.
SPEAKER_03Or the on-hold music at some places, too.
SPEAKER_02Oh, I could I would have had to take out all of the top and the bottom and just leave like a teeny bit of mid-range for people to hear absolutely nothing. One of my pet peeves is music on hold. The quality of the digital phone lines is so bad that it doesn't sound like music anymore. It sounds like wait, there's places you can call now and talk to people? That's kind of cool. Once once in a while yesterday. Yesterday I I had to call, who was it I called? Oh, it was ACX about my audio book, which is a division of Amazon. How long? I got a woman. Okay. She answered the phone. Yeah. And I went, Oh, did I win the onshore lottery? I got a I got a woman uh who lives in America, and uh but in the background I heard this, yeah, all the others. I said, Are you working from home? She goes, Yeah, how'd you how'd you know? I said, Oh, the kid. Good guess, yeah. The kid.
Target-Date Fund Debate
SPEAKER_02Anyway, hi, welcome to Talking Real Money, and we have a plain vanilla themed song to go with a very plain vanilla topic today, and that is the all-purpose mutual fund, the fund designed for everybody on the planet, or is it the target date ETF? We're not even going to say fund anymore. Let's just say target date ETF. Who uses mutual funds?
SPEAKER_03Aaron Powell Well, you have to use mutual funds in a 401k.
SPEAKER_02All right. In a 401k, you do. So target date funds and target date ETFs. They're sort of an all-purpose thing that they have a portfolio based on your age. Yeah. Or the time.
SPEAKER_03Go cradle to grave if you want. You could say, give me the target date 2050 fund. And the idea here is less.
SPEAKER_02Some people have beefs about them.
SPEAKER_03Trevor Burrus, Jr. Well, we'll talk about that in a second. But the idea here, in a general sense, is they go from the appropriate amount of risk, which you should be taking a lot of when you're young, to less risk when you're older by simply changing the percentage of stocks versus bonds, right? The riskier things are the lesser.
SPEAKER_02As you get closer to using the money, which is generally retirement, the portfolio gradually becomes more conservative. It's called a glide path fund.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, and there's been some controversy. It's interesting, uh, Robert Posen, who is uh former president of Fidelity, which I guess gives him a pedestal of some kind, right? Um something. He says, quote, no one is auditing glide path. And he would like an independent director on each one of those funds or directors that looks at this movement slowly from stocks to more bonds as you all in your 2030, 2040, 20, whatever uh fund you're in, uh move into those years that you're gonna need the money. By the way, this is a fat before we even there's more background on all this, it's fascinating because now I think in 401k plans, it's like seven out of ten dollars are in target date funds. They are def they are the default. You just say, I want to be in the program, they no longer just let you sit, let you sit in a money market. Um, and they are home to many, many billions of dollars where people don't want to pick the funds. They don't want to have to design a portfolio, they don't want to rebalance it, they don't want to do anything. I'll save and I'll collect my match from my employer, but I just want to set it and forget it. Well, this is the way to do it. Um, but according to Mr. Posen, we're not doing it well enough, I'll put it that way.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. Um, and this has always been our beef with them. We we've had a we're we don't believe they're the be all end-all kind of product because they don't take individuality into account. They don't take your particular situation into account. In essence, they treat everybody of the same age the same way. They give you the same portfolio. Oh, and by the way, you want to be depressed? I just looked up the longest, the longest dated target date hunt. How far is it? It's in the TSP.
SPEAKER_03Yeah.
unknownOkay.
SPEAKER_02The thrift savings plan. Okay. Uh if if I had this fund, I would have to live until 119. Wow. For it to get to the end of its run. Uh that's the 2075 fund.
unknown20.
SPEAKER_03No, that's a date I will not see. I will not see that date, sorry to say. Um, okay, but I think this is worthy of some discussion. Um I don't know about having independent directors on all these funds. I think that might think about what the added cost of all that would be.
SPEAKER_02But I think that's kind of silly. You know, but but I I do. I think that part is silly. But what I don't think is silly is the concept of tweaking. If even if you're gonna you and this is something that Paul Merriman came up with, even if you're gonna use a target date fund, tweak it a little bit to add risk or subtract risk or go with a different uh maturity that doesn't fit your retirement age depending on your situation. If you need more risk, you can stand more risk, or whatever it might be. But uh I I don't know that you we need somebody else just, you know, looking over the shoulder of target date funds, going, you all need to have the same allocation.
Tuning Glide Paths
SPEAKER_03Yeah. But this always gets back to you, because so many of you want to save and do save, which is great. But then the work that has to be done after that, because yeah, there's still some work to be done, feels burdensome to many, feels difficult to many, and they just don't want to do it. So back to what Paul had suggested many moons ago now that is target date fund plus say 20% in a U.S. small cap value fund to make sure that you're properly allocated to some other asset classes. Because these target date funds, guess what? Uh listen, here's the here's the numbers, here's where they're invested. For example, Vanguard's 2030 fund, VTHRX, which gets a gold star for only eight basis points, 0.08. Yeah, very cheap. Yield, two and a half. I guess that doesn't probably matter. Turnover 9%. Still doesn't probably matter because these are going to be in retirement accounts anyway. But here's the part that's interesting: the asset allocation, the things it owns for you, U.S. stock market, 37%. International stocks, 16%, and bonds, 44%. Okay, so you're looking at a 55%, 45% for somebody who's retiring in four years, say. Just for rounding this just for giggles, right? Okay, the Fidelity 2030 FFFEX, their freedom fund. Expense ratio, huh, quite a bit higher than Vanguard's 2030 at 0.61. That's 61 basis points versus eight.
unknownWow.
SPEAKER_03Turnover 16, which feels high in some ways.
SPEAKER_02Well, I can tell you I wouldn't buy the Fidelity Fund if I was going for a target date fund.
SPEAKER_03No.
SPEAKER_02There you go. Fidelity former Fidelity guy, you should be criticizing Fidelity for the high fees, not the need for an ombudsman.
SPEAKER_03That should have been should have been mentioned. Yeah. But here the the point of the exercise was to look at the asset allocation to see if it's different, to see if everybody's doing the same thing. And basically, they're pretty close to the Vanguard 2030 because they this the fidelity fund has 37% in U.S. stocks. Sound familiar? 16% in international stocks, sound familiar, and 44% in bonds. I mean, it's almost identical. Kind of weird, really, you think about it. So um I thought I'd look at one more, the BlackRock 2030 fund, L-I-N-K-X expense ratio, 0.09. So only nine basis points, yield a little higher at 2.9. But the asset allocation, fairly similar again. 32% in U.S. stocks, 18% in international stocks, and bonds, 46%. So these are all basically 55% in stocks, 45% in bonds. I mean, at that asset allocation, you'd have to hope for six, maybe seven percent a year, probably a little less than that, with almost half your money in bonds, especially in today's environment. Um, but they're very similar. There's not much difference here. But the the question on the table, Don, was and is How do we measure I see the guy in the back row? Yes, sir. Go ahead. You have the floor.
SPEAKER_02No, no, I'm calling the question. Just finishing the question. Who determines?
SPEAKER_03Oh, I see. That's it. Yeah, we're moving right to cloture. Um so the qu is who should decide on the the glide path, as you called it, the the change in the overall asset allocation from stocks to bond. Who should make that call? And what should it look like? And how conservative should people be when they're 70 or 75 or 80 for that matter, if they're still in a target date fund? You made the exact right point. And that is this fund is, you know, one shoe fits all. Well, does it? I mean, does one shoe really fit all when it comes to ass allocation? No, we know it doesn't. Because if you're a person who's been a great saver and your mortgage is paid off, you may have a completely different financial situation, even though you're the same age, as somebody else who didn't do all those things.
SPEAKER_02They're simple, but they're not specific. There's not enough specificity to meet the needs of all the people involved. They're a reasonable quick fix to the question of how do I build a portfolio. That's really all they are. By the way, just I I took a look at Vanguard's uh Vanguard has a a uh fund for when Don turns 114, which is pretty close. The 2070 target date fund.
SPEAKER_032070, good Lord.
SPEAKER_02And you would think a 2070 fund. That's a few years out yet. About 46 years.
SPEAKER_03Yeah. I think that's when my daughter's gonna retire, something like that.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. So you'd think that fund would be, well, like a hundred percent equities. And no, 95.5. That's 90 ten.
SPEAKER_0390 ten. Oh, I'm glad you asked about 90 ten because posen says a lot more people should be 90 ten that should own fewer bonds.
SPEAKER_02So go for the Vanguard 2070.
SPEAKER_03Exactly.
SPEAKER_02Or if if you like paying a little, that's you know, that again, the 2070 is eight basis points, eight one hundredths of one
Kiyosaki’s Crash Predictions
SPEAKER_02percent. I looked up the most expensive target date fund, yeah. Which is the BlackRock Life Path Dynamic Fund.
SPEAKER_03The minute they say dynamic, time to run to the you know what, yeah.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. Now it's a target date fund, so it's a one fund fits all kind of thing, you know. Uh so it shouldn't be too expensive, right? I mean, Fidelity's freedom funds are 0.6, as you said.
SPEAKER_03That's not true.
SPEAKER_02They're actually 0.46 to 0.68, depending on the one. But this one Oh, and by the way, that Fidelity Freedom Fund is actively managed, Tom.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, it's not an index. True.
SPEAKER_02This one I'll go ahead and guess. See if you see how close you come.
SPEAKER_0374 basis points.
SPEAKER_02Double that. What? One and a half? Double 1.6.
SPEAKER_03That's crazy. Double that. That's that's crazy. That's nuts.
SPEAKER_02And speaking of crazy, one of our favorite, we think, kind of crazy people. I mean, his advice is way out there, and we make fun of it all the time because every pretty much every month, some little baby financial media out there gets a quote from Robert Kiyosaki, the semi-author of the semi-true but not really true book, Rich Dad, Poor Dad, um, about his predictions for the market and his suggestions as to what you should be buying. And his suggestion almost always is buy silver and the market is going to end cold and the market is going to crash. Yeah. Can you go back and look at the last five years?
SPEAKER_03Yeah, can you go back and look at the five last five years and see if you could find it'd be maybe hard to find all the predictions because he makes a lot of them. You know.
SPEAKER_02I could actually look. Trevor Burrus, Jr.
SPEAKER_03The Vanity Fair piece that we're referring to that just came out does talk about the fact that he's been wrong many, many times. Um for me, the fact and the the article's really the headline for this article was that he's $1.2 billion in debt. And people are gonna say, wait, I'm taking financial advice from a guy who's $1.2 billion in debt. Now, he uses it to buy real estate.
SPEAKER_02It's not like he ran it up on his credit cards.
SPEAKER_03Exactly. He's not taking all these Tom vacations and not paying his bills. I get that. Different situation. No, no, completely.
SPEAKER_02At $1.2 billion, he's taking better than Tom vacations.
SPEAKER_03It really hurts my feeling. He's the guy on that super yacht I'm looking at there. Yeah, he's out, he's on the super yacht laughing at me. So um, so people that they, oh my goodness, he you what an idiot. Well, okay, you could you could argue about the use of leverage and debt in business because there are some people that have done it well and some people not so well. It is risky, right? Because things turn against you, markets go a separate way, money gets more expensive. Um, that could be problematic. Uh that's not the reason that I'm down on Robert Kiyosaki. I'm down on him because I think he's a promoter and I think he's a market timer, and I think he gives people generally bad advice.
SPEAKER_02Well, let's talk about how bad that is, because I did some looking in 2002 in his book, Rich Dad's Prophecy, he claimed that we would have the biggest stock market crash in history uh in 2016.
SPEAKER_03In the I you just said 2002 a moment ago.
SPEAKER_02So it was He predicted it in 2002, but he said it would happen in 2016.
SPEAKER_03So he gave himself 14 years for it to happen.
SPEAKER_02Exactly. That's kind of weird, but okay. Um 2011, he warned of a looming catastrophic market collapse and advocated putting everything in gold and silver. Then in 2015, he said, okay, I was off. I was off a little, but I was still right on 2016, so I'm gonna go back to 16 again. It's gonna happen in 16. Didn't happen in 16, so in 18 he said, okay, 16 was an aberration. The biggest crash in history will happen soon, blaming debt, pensions, and central bank policy. Then he said the COVID crash was only the beginning in 2020. Then he said in June of 2021, the biggest crash in world history is coming.
SPEAKER_03Didn't he say that like every week or something? Or I see it recently.
SPEAKER_02Then in September, June 21, the biggest crash. September 21, the biggest crash would happen in October 21. He even gave us a month. You remember the crash of 21, right? I something I missed that one.
SPEAKER_03Okay.
SPEAKER_02Um he in June of 24 predicted Bitcoin would reach $350,000. By August 25th, 2024. In June of 2024. Yeah. January 25, the big crash has arrived. He isn't even predicting it. In January of 2025, a year and a half ago, he said, we are in the big crash, and gold is going to 15,000. Then he said, okay, maybe that wasn't the crash. In January or in June of 2025, he said, it's coming. I was a little off. Then he shifted it to just this year. He's predicting it for late 26, 27.
SPEAKER_03Okay. So it's still coming.
SPEAKER_02It just It's still coming, and it is it has been coming since 2002.
SPEAKER_03More importantly, how his father's passed away. How is his relationship with his dad?
SPEAKER_02His dad died. I know. But he How could he have a relationship with his head?
SPEAKER_03He vilified his own father for saying that.
SPEAKER_02Is he having it in the secondary market?
SPEAKER_03He vilified his own father for being, you know, the guy that, you know, wasn't interested in money. And his dad, by the way, was the superintendent of public construction, I think, for Hawaii, which is, you know, pretty big job for any state, right?
SPEAKER_02I mean, I mean it's a prestigious job. It's not a big money job.
SPEAKER_03No, it's not. I'm sure he were he retired with his pension and his social security, and that was that, and was not rich. But okay, that brings me to the point. And and by the way, for full disclosure, we we interviewed him back on in Sound Investing days with Paul Merriman, and I interviewed him on television when I had a TV show. Neither was it.
SPEAKER_02It wasn't my idea, Daniel.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, we didn't like it. But I don't this book ends every time there's something they ask somebody your top five financial books. This book always ends up on the list. I'm like, why? What tell me why this book should be on the list? Or uh please.
SPEAKER_02I I want me to tell you. I think I think it is because people are looking for a simple life parable. And what this semi-fictional account does is gives you that simple parable. If you if you want to be rich, you can wish yourself to richness. Just be your behavior, change your behavior. Don't sit around and do a good job. Make money, damn it. Just make money. And by the way, the problem with his leverage, that $1.2 billion debt. Here's the thing. Let's let's simplify it a little bit because $1.2 is a lot of money. Let's just let's just say you bought you bought a billion dollar piece of property. Okay, you bought some big downtown building. You bought a billion dollar property, and you put down a hundred million, borrowing 900 million. So 90% leverage.
SPEAKER_03Okay.
SPEAKER_02Which is a pretty normal number. Let's say the real estate in that market declines precipitously, that office buildings are having a bad time, which would never happen in real life. Um he said facetiously. I'm going to give you a number of that in a minute. Um if it went down 10%, just 10%, you're now worth nothing. Yeah, okay. Here in You're worth nothing.
SPEAKER_03Zero. The built downtown buildings are worth about 55% of what they were selling for in 2019.
SPEAKER_02Okay, in that case, you would be in the hole by $400 million. You would owe another $400 million over and above what the building is worth out of your own pocket.
SPEAKER_03Foreclosure, can you say? Bankruptcy. I don't know how it all works. Anyway, I I don't I'm not a fan. Thank you for going through and and providing all the updates on the coming crashes. I do appreciate it.
SPEAKER_02Someday, someday, stopped clock. Someday that stop clock is right. I watched the first episode of Ted Lasso yesterday.
SPEAKER_03Not well loved this year season.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, well, it's as Debbie said, did they lose all the writers?
SPEAKER_03The soccer goes on, but the writing stopped.
SPEAKER_02There was one though. The mom is having a garage sale, a yard sale, and there's Clock that somebody's looking at. She goes, Yeah, it just needs batteries. She goes, But if that doesn't work, it'll be right twice a day.
unknownThat's it.
SPEAKER_02All right, on to the questions. Tom has your questions printed on sheets of white paper, bleached paper. Not only is he killing trees, he's using bleached paper that leaches harmful chemicals into the environment. Yes, it's Tom's attack on all things
Buffered ETFs Explored
SPEAKER_02natural, the question and answer period on talking real money.
SPEAKER_03I can't figure out what's worth my vacations or the printing thing.
SPEAKER_02They're all bad.
SPEAKER_03I need a third, because everything comes in three. AI is all in three.
SPEAKER_02Just use AI. That's the thing. No, but that's that wouldn't be that wouldn't be bad. I'm sure I'm making people mad with my AI.
SPEAKER_03Another negative. All right. Thank you for that kind introduction. Tuck Willow, Washington, Julie writes us what is a buffered exchange traded fund and should I have them in my portfolio? I have 900,000 between my Roth IRAs, traditional IRAs, and brokerage accounts. Thank you for your answer. Buffered ETF. Isn't that the stuff you take when you have a headache, bufferin ETF or something?
SPEAKER_02No, I haven't taken bufferin since my grandmother was alive. Yeah. Buffered ETFs are another one of these walls. Boomer candy is.
SPEAKER_03They call them boomer candy.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. It's what they've done basically is they're buying you an index fund, which you could do, by the way. You could buy your own index fund. And then they play options. They buy or sell options against that portfolio to reduce your risk on the downside, that those options will step in and cover some of that if the market goes haywire. The problem is those options cost a lot of money. They are not cheap. And what they do is you they clip your upside. You're giving up upside to protect against downside, and you're paying a lot of extra money to get it. So are they worth it? Well, we found an easier way. You can have a buffered ETF, basically, by buying a balanced ETF. That's like 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds, because while I know bonds have fallen at times, not much. They don't they they they they have a buffer to them. They they haven't, and they likely will not suffer the same kind of declines the stock market suffers.
SPEAKER_03Buffered ETFs make a similar promise to other products you may have heard us talk about, where you get market-like returns with none of the downside.
SPEAKER_02And that's Yeah, I mean you can just buy a cheap stock and bond fund for less than one-tenth of one percent, or you can pay fees up to and above one percent for a buffered ETF. Well, it doesn't make any sense.
SPEAKER_03No, it doesn't. Um thank you for the question, though. Steven from Abington, Massachusetts. I have $400,000 in one of my children's accounts who is entering college. Wow, that's a lot. I'm assuming it's a $529, but that would be a guess. It doesn't say what type account. But under the advisement of my estate attorney, I should pay for college out of pocket. Are there better options? What's your opinion?
SPEAKER_02Wait a minute.
SPEAKER_03If you have $400,000 attorney in that I mean, but what else can you do with that other than fund uh if it's a $529, you can fund $35,000 of the child's Roth IRA over the next few years when they have the income. But um that other than that, I don't know why you would keep it. It sounds like the lawyer is saying, no, no, no, don't spend that. Go spend it from somewhere else to pay for the kid.
SPEAKER_02But but here's the thing that there's four hundred thousand in a five twenty-nine. Yeah. Is he is he ignoring the tax thing?
unknownI think.
SPEAKER_02Okay, I think I know what he's getting at now that I think about it. Okay. Okay, okay. Because you can I think what they're talking about is using the annual gift tax exclusion to get money to get money out of the estate.
SPEAKER_03Okay, that's a whole different topic.
SPEAKER_02So it must be a very large estate. I mean, large estate. Um but here's the problem. There's the the the tax trade-off. This may be a great estate planning tool, saving your heirs money. Who cares? It's them. They're getting free money anyway. But it is the they're that money can pay for college tax free. It grew tax-free. I don't know.
SPEAKER_03I mean you would have to know more information about the type of account and what you're trying to achieve to give you a reality.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, this is one of those things where, man, do we would we need details, but uh uh there is uh I just doesn't seem like that $19,000 annual gift tax exclusion is worth it. No. I don't
Cash Buffers in Retirement
SPEAKER_02think that's just me.
SPEAKER_03Yep. Uh one more here from Albany, New York. Scott writes, gentlemen, I have a question about having a multi-year cash buffer, not to be confused with the buffer ETF, for market downturns to help blunt series of return risks. In other words, retiring and then not having the cash. Does the cash buffer, used for expenses so as not to sell equities during deep market downturns, sit outside of the say 80% stock, 20% bond asset allocation? Should cash be considered separate or should it be considered part of the bond allocation Don?
SPEAKER_02It's part of your fixed income. Thank you. It does not sit separate from it. Now, I love the idea of having that, but there's a there's another way to do it, too, and that is to have a year's worth of expenses, for example, set aside and um to refund that out of a flexible withdrawal from your accounts, uh, which means you'll be taking more out when the market is good, and that that account is going to grow larger, and you're gonna take less out when the market is bad, so it's gonna grow a little smaller. It's gonna grow a little less. Um but make it a disciplined thing, yes. But I feared for a moment that he was wanting to keep powder dry to buy stocks when things went down, and then that's losing out on the 80 percent in stocks, 20 percent in bonds during decumulation is a fairly aggressive strategy.
SPEAKER_03Aaron Powell for most people. It it depends on the size of the estate, depends on the how much you're taking out. You've correctly pointed out if it's a you know four million estate and you've got, you know, eight hundred thousand in bonds, you could draw from that for a very long period of time before you have to touch the stocks. That's true. What I've seen, though, is people get into retirement, they have a certain amount, and that's always they they've had that for whatever period of time, and they're drawing on it, and the market's going down. Oftentimes people just it freaks them out. They're like, no, no, no, the portfolio is down, I gotta do something. That's when the mistakes get made. That's my worry.
SPEAKER_02So that's why we go back to that old chestnut. Plan, plan, plan, plan, plan, plan, plan, plan, plan, plan. You need a plan. Gotta have a plan. Okay. And you gotta have a place to go to ask questions. Thankfully, you have that. It's called Talking Real Money. It's this this little podcast right here with us. Me, Tom. All you do is go to talkingrealmoney.com, click on the button that says ask a question, or click on the microphone in the lower right-hand corner and speak a question. Or if you really need some in-depth portfolio help, go to talkingrealmoney.com, click on meet an advisor. We'll give you some time at no cost, no obligation, and you're not going to get pressured into becoming a client. I promise, Tom promises, cross our heart, hope to die, stick a needle in our eyes. How grotesque is that?
SPEAKER_03Speaking of the sixties, there you go. You're right back to where you started, I guess.
SPEAKER_02Oh, and by the way, speaking of the 60s.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, these 1960s, by the way.
SPEAKER_021960s or 1970s. Yeah. You know, you remember the elevator music in the elevators. Well, here's the thing. If somebody'd actually spent some money on decent speakers, it would have sounded like this.
SPEAKER_01The same sweet arrangement in the lobby and the lift. On eye little mixture, everybody gets the gift. It's fun, it's really fun. It's the middle of the road, it's a good thing. We're talking big.
SPEAKER_00The opinions
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