Infinite Bubbles?

SPEAKER_01 0:05

You're gonna do a really great financial future. Tom and Don are talking real money.

SPEAKER_02 0:14

Wait, what was that? Wait. Was that a bubble? I think I just heard a bubble. Two bubbles. Hey, I I'm confused, but maybe we should talk about bubbles then. Could be a hint. Hi everybody, welcome to Talking Real Money.

Bubble Day

SPEAKER_02 0:31

I'm Don. That's Tom. This is Bubble Day. And uh we want to talk a little bit about your incredible skill. And we know you all have this skill because we've heard from you. You know when we're in a bubble, you can just feel it. It's intuitive. We're all so much smarter than the market, and and we we know that. We know that because we're always saying, Well, I this feels like a bubble. I think I'm gonna get out of the stock market for a while and go into cash because this feels like a bubble. Hmm. Wonder if we've ever felt that way before. Jason Zweig of the Wall Street Journal helped us out recently with a little piece about predicting bubbles, Tom.

SPEAKER_04 1:19

Yeah, you know, when you say bubbles to me, I think champagne, but that's just me, I guess. So I guess I wish I had more of it. Yeah, so okay.

SPEAKER_02 1:26

So I tried a recording of champagne bubbles, by the way, and you really can't hear them.

SPEAKER_04 1:31

Yeah, okay. So I think you did right. So quiet.

SPEAKER_02 1:34

So I had to go with the big bubble.

SPEAKER_04 1:35

Yeah. So I mean he he he points, he makes a one very fascinating and recent point that shocking really when you think about it. Semiconductor stocks, right? These are the people involved in AI to some extent, right?

SPEAKER_02 1:49

Yeah, bigly bigly involved in AI. Bigley, bigly. Uh but use that word.

SPEAKER_04 1:55

38%. That's just shy of 40% in April, one month. That was last month, right? Yeah, that was apparently last month. Um, which is a staggering. Is it speculative to some degree? You gotta wonder, right? I mean, and that's what a bubble is, right? Sort of the speculation built on hope uh about why the future is gonna be so bright. But I looked at a few other places in the market. Um emerging markets year-to-date up almost 23%. U.S. small cap value stocks up 14.5%. Now remember, this could have changed by the time this program actually hits the air, the global stock market up over 10% year to date. Those things are reasonable, but they're, you know, the certainly the semiconductor numbers and I think you said one stock was up 10% in one day as part of that.

SPEAKER_02 2:47

Alphabet. Google. Alphabet up 10% in a single day. Now, you know, that kind of feels like a bubble. And a lot of people, I hear this a lot. I hear this a lot, not only from other people, but from somebody I live with, that this feels a lot like a bubble, and should we go to cash? Well, Owen Lamont told Jason Zweig at the Wall Street Journal, he's a portfolio manager at a CD Acadian asset management. Uh he said, one definition of a bubble is when I think the stock market is overpriced, and then it doubles.

SPEAKER_04 3:21

Yeah, that's the bubble double. Uh the double bubble. The double bubble. I trust a triple double bubble. So much better after that. I trust people like academics like Eugene Fama. Do you know what he said about bubbles?

SPEAKER_02 3:40

That he likes them in the bathtub.

SPEAKER_04 3:42

Rub a dub dub. He says they are largely indistinguishable from normal market activity in real time, making them impossible to identify or predict. Yep.

SPEAKER_02 3:56

I think that's really good advice. And you know, and here's the thing uh this is the point that Zwag makes, and it's such a good point. If people were actually able to identify bubbles and then react to the bubbles, there would not be bubbles.

SPEAKER_04 4:12

Exactly.

SPEAKER_02 4:13

There would be no bubbles changed because we would all be just behaving rationally, and that wouldn't you by that definition you cannot have a bubble. So can you predict bubbles? The evidence says no.

SPEAKER_04 4:28

Yeah, and and there have been some astound. I mean, we can remember some of these, right? The dot-com bubble, I guess if you will, in the early 2000s, Bitcoin bubble 2021, SPACs, forgotten all about those back in uh back in the COVID days. According to Zwag, people lost a hundred billion dollars diving into uh special purpose companies that way. Crazy. And then Don's favorite, because it all that's where you started investing, I believe, the tulip bulb bubble, right? That that that popped and left you holding holding the seeds. Holding the bugs, holding the bulbs, not the bugs. Not the bulbs.

Ignore Bubble Fear

SPEAKER_04 5:06

So okay, but the so if your neighbor tells you that we're in a bubble and you need to do something, that's right, that's the question on the table, right? What do I do? Nothing. Ah, okay. I was gonna do that.

SPEAKER_02 5:19

That's really that's that's the John Bogle philosophy. Don't just do something, sit there. Don't do anything. Don't react to what you feel because your feelings are meaningless. They mean nothing. Are you do you think you're the only one in the world who kind of feels like this is a bubble? And you're gonna beat everybody to the exit? No, you're you're not. You're not. And uh you can't really know when there's a bubble. Although I love this line from the article. This is uh this is Jason Zweig uh a quote. When the fans of an overpriced asset go from touting its benefits to attacking its critics, you can be fairly sure it's becoming a bubble. Now, what happened, what has been happening over the past year or so? What asset class has been lashing out at anybody? What owners of which asset class have been lashing out at anybody who criticizes their asset class? What comes to mind? Well, Bitcoin always comes to mind.

SPEAKER_04 6:19

There you go. I was just because that's easy. Uh I was thinking you were gonna say AI because the one I mean they attack their critics. Yep, they go after them.

SPEAKER_02 6:28

Yeah, absolutely. That that that's indicative, that one. That's why I'm just steering clear. I'm not timing the market. I I just think that when you attack your critics and you can't really argue the benefits, yeah, you got a spurious argument.

SPEAKER_04 6:41

I'm gonna argue with you a little bit too about what you said about doing nothing because I think anytime, anytime you're nervous about kind of uh this seems like speculation and there's what there's no reason stocks should be up. First thing is you should know what your stock-to-bond ratio is, what you're trying to accomplish, rather than just letting things sort of drift, right? Because maybe. Oh, yeah, no, no. But at that time you could look at it and go, Yeah, you're right. I'm in instead of being 60-40, I'm 70-30. Maybe I need to rebalance. Number two, this is so important. He mentions it in the article. You've just got to be diversified.

SPEAKER_02 7:20

Uh and by the way, he does say the S P 500 is not diversification. Thank you.

SPEAKER_04 7:25

Um, as we we will talk more about that and their silly changes coming up too in just a moment as an update there. But you've got to be diversified, right? You just got to do it. And then back to number what you just said, you've got to find a way to tune out the noise. You need to know how you're gonna put this away somewhere else because my portfolio is built, it's correct, and it doesn't matter what happens with semiconductors, emerging markets, small cap value, all of those things, those are gonna happen. My job is to take care of me and my money, not worry about all those things happening.

SPEAKER_02 7:57

Yep. Make sure you're set from the get-go, not later on, and quit trying to outsmart the market, because in aggregate, it's probably smarter than you. If you're just an average investor, then the market is smarter than you. Yep. If you're a successfully above average, always successful, oh my gosh, I'm so smart investor, and you can actually prove it to someone else on paper, not just believe it yourself because we tend to be delusional, uh, then you're an average to below average investor, and you really ought not to be doing anything. And you can win by being average. Average is a good thing.

SPEAKER_04 8:38

I know. It's hard to believe, but in this case, that's good enough.

SPEAKER_02 8:42

That's good enough. Yeah. Got any questions?

SPEAKER_04 8:45

I got a lot of questions.

SPEAKER_02 8:47

Not you. Oh, pardon me. I was talking to the royal we, you. I was talking to the royal you. The all of you. Well, maybe that isn't the royal you. Maybe that's the all-inclusive you. You're the royal you, Tommy.

SPEAKER_04 8:58

Thank you.

SPEAKER_02 8:59

You're welcome. Finally. Yeah. Um, if you, all of you listening, have questions, well, there's an easy way to get them answered. You just go to talkingrealmoney.com. That's our website. The internet, an amazing thing. There's a button. There are two buttons, actually. There's one up in the corner that says contact us, and then there's one that says ask a question. Either one of those work. You can go to the question form and you can type out your question, and that'll end up uh being read by Tom or uh mentioned. We'll get it, we'll get to that in a minute, or you can uh speak them in and then I'll answer those on the Friday QA podcast. But right now, this is Tom actually on the phone with somebody.

Wash Sale Worries

SPEAKER_04 9:41

And so we go to the Tri-Cities, Washington, beautiful eastern Washington, especially this time of year. And Ted joins us on Talking Real Money. Hi, Ted. So what's up? What do you got today?

SPEAKER_03 9:55

Um well this is this happened um about a month ago. Um, I was doing some console calls with uh Fidelity Advisor, and one of the things he um mentioned to me for my account was the benefit of tax loss harvesting in my brokerage account. Um so at the beginning of April, there was a pretty big market downturn. And so I used an app on Fidelity um to do a tax loss on some VT shares that I'd bought just a few weeks before that. And it calculated that I could um get a loss about $500. And so I procedure to do that. Um and then over the next day or so I was trying to figure out um what funds I could buy to avoid a large sale. And so I did a lot of research, I checked Chat GPT, and then what I ended up doing is buying some replacement funds in VTI and also VXUS. Um now on my fidelity um screen, it's showing next to my VT shares currently um that the balance, the current balance has been adjusted because of a wash sale. And so I'm trying to figure out you know, how do I avoid this in the future? Is there really the potential of a wash sale because of what I bought? Or, you know, just some advice from you guys.

SPEAKER_04 11:16

Yeah, I don't think you're gonna be in any trouble there with a wash sale because you should be fine with those two funds. That said, it probably if it was me, I probably would go to the brokerage now and tell them this is showing up, this doesn't look right to me, and I want to make sure that there's not gonna be any problem at the end of the year. I don't want to get a 1099 or anything that's gonna suggest somehow that I need to pay tax on that. So, because you really do want to make sure that that's cleaned up right away. You don't want to wait. I I just it's one of those things I've seen this come up, and then people the following April will call me and say, Hey, look at this. I'm like, uh yeah. So I probably would do that. I think you're okay. Uh, but I but I'd be like all other matters of tax, I'd probably be proactive because I don't want to see things sort of linger and then find out later that I had to take some sort of action to make sure of that.

SPEAKER_03 12:05

So that trade was okay. VT for VT?

SPEAKER_04 12:09

It sounds to me like it would be. Yes, sir. Yep. Yep, those two funds should be fine. And again, I would just confirm that with them. Um, and and they they have great reputation for customer service, should be able to get through to somebody there and take care of that. But I wouldn't wait around. I would I would definitely jump in on that.

SPEAKER_03 12:28

And then what if they come back and say, well, you're not allowed to buy these two funds as your replacement for V2, VT?

SPEAKER_04 12:38

Wow, that's a whole other topic. Um, you know, I'm really not sure what you would do then because you did this has been over a month, you said, correct?

SPEAKER_03 12:46

Yeah, beginning of April.

SPEAKER_04 12:49

Yeah, so you're well into the yeah, I don't know. You'd have to ask them. That's a tougher question because if the purchase has already been made and you've had it for that period, I don't know what they would what remedy they could suggest. But you get again, you could ask Fidelity, they'd be glad to help you with that, I'm sure.

SPEAKER_03 13:04

They could suggest some funds instead. Probably, yeah. Great. That answers my question.

SPEAKER_04 13:11

Well, thank you for listening and reaching out to us. Um, it sounds like you're making some good moves there with some uh index style product, index funds from uh Vanguard, and we favor those as you know very much. Appreciate your time today, Ted. It's a pleasure talking to you. You bet. Take care. All right, bye-bye.

SPEAKER_02 13:30

And then we switch right from him talking to you on the phone to him grabbing his little pieces of trees and reading questions to me that I have never heard before because he refuses to share them with me.

SPEAKER_04 13:44

We tried that for a while. Yeah, it didn't work. You just forgot to do it. I know. Apparently, other things.

SPEAKER_02 13:50

We like the surprise thing. This is a surprise. Don is answering this question on the fly, and if I don't know, hopefully Tom has already checked it and knows because we'll see.

Money Talks at Home

SPEAKER_02 14:00

This is a good question.

SPEAKER_04 14:01

Really good question. I gotta say that. From Austin, Texas. Brianna writes Welcome Horns. Exactly. I've been loving the podcast lately. While listening, I thought of someone you might be interested in connecting with. Here's more. April, which is just past us, was the National Financial Literacy Month, and kids are learning about money. Yeah. But not always from the right places. Right. Too often their financial education comes from TikTok, social media gurus, or peers, peers rather, who are just as confused. Longtime real estate investor Jonathan Green believes parents need to start conversations earlier. Wait, this is a pitch for a guest. But I'm getting to the good part. Oh. Because I get these all the time and I hate them. I I do too. Green grew up learning about money not through lectures but through exposure. Sure. His father would talk to him about rentals, blah, blah, blah. But that's not the part I wanted to touch on.

SPEAKER_02 14:51

Okay, because she's pitching him as a guest. She's a publicist.

SPEAKER_04 14:54

Yeah. Here's the here's the here's the really loving the podcast. That's a replacing awkward money talks with normal conversations can be very helpful to young people. I I absolutely totally agree. In other words, having those conversations at home rather than waiting for somebody to find out something from a friend, a neighbor, a TikTok, or whatever is important. No, it really is.

SPEAKER_02 15:21

That sounds like a sex talk advice. You know what I'm getting uh advice in the back alley from those bad boys with the funny marijuana sticks in their mouths. No, you don't, yeah, that that wacky tobacky.

SPEAKER_04 15:37

You know about that. So again, but I this came this brought a question to mind because this is something I've really tried to do hard. Much better with the last child, which as you know is leaving here soon, um, is talk up openly about money. Like if we have an argument at home about money, we we try to, you know, let's let's put it out there. We're not trying to hide it, which it was when I was growing up. It just wasn't discussed. So my question to you is do you just I know you discussed money with your spouse, but what about when you had your last at home Tory? What was the discussion around money with her?

SPEAKER_02 16:10

We we discussed it. They didn't want to hear about it. They didn't want to hear about it. Just pay the bills. They ignored me. I mean, of course, think about it. I'm a financial talk show host. I'm talking about money in front of them all the time. Yeah. I'm talking about investing, I'm talking about us, I'm talking about our bills, I'm talking about, you know, back in the day when we were in debt, I was talking about when the when the antique map company failed and you know how that put us in a bind. I talked about all these things, and they were aware of them, and they still are making mistakes. But hey, that's what we do. Trevor Burrus, Jr.

SPEAKER_04 16:40

Yeah. But but you had the conversation. Do you have the discussion? Is anybody gonna be perfect as a result of that? No. But it is a conversation to good place. The point was, yeah, have those discussions at home.

SPEAKER_02 16:52

Okay, and we're not gonna bring your guy on as a guest. And by the way, don't even send us pitches.

SPEAKER_04 16:57

Oh, send us pitches.

SPEAKER_02 16:58

No, I get like I no, you don't get as many as I do.

SPEAKER_04 17:01

No, I bet I don't.

SPEAKER_02 17:03

I get like five or six a day.

SPEAKER_04 17:05

Oh, good Lord.

SPEAKER_02 17:06

You know, this guy's an expert. This guy beat the market, this guy managed this fund, this guy wrote this.

SPEAKER_04 17:13

Uh-huh. You can replace me very easily because you just have one of those guys on every day.

SPEAKER_02 17:16

I'm not gonna do it. I'm not gonna do it. That was that was from my days back at Business Radio Network when I had to have all those book idiots on.

SPEAKER_04 17:24

I had all of them on my uh TV show. Oh, and you enjoyed it probably. But I hated it.

SPEAKER_02 17:30

I hated it because I thought, you know, these guys aren't they they're being disingenuous. They're they're trying to sell their

Roth Conversion Tax

SPEAKER_02 17:36

product. They're they're not sure, they don't really care.

SPEAKER_04 17:38

All right, let's go to another uh typed in question from Ted in Renton, Washington. Hi, Don and Tom. Nice seeing you at retirement 2020 2026.

SPEAKER_02 17:49

Did you just say retirement 2026?

SPEAKER_04 17:52

I have a $7.3 million portfolio, own my $900,000 home, and I've an $84 risk score. I'm 61, plan to retire months. I'm thinking of converting.

SPEAKER_02 18:02

Wait. Why are you even sending us a note you're fine?

SPEAKER_04 18:05

I I that would be my take. But here's the question. No, I'm thinking you're just bragging. I'm thinking of converting my IRAs to Roth, but pay for the conversion with a reduced IRA.

unknown 18:14

Huh?

SPEAKER_02 18:15

With a reduced IRA conversion.

SPEAKER_04 18:20

I think he's talking reduction sauce. I I think what he's saying here is uh he wants to pay the tax on the IRA conversion with uh money from the the IRA. I don't like that.

SPEAKER_02 18:34

No, no, that's a terrible idea.

SPEAKER_04 18:35

Why would you want to do that? I don't know. People get really caught up in these things. He says he has brokerage of 1.1 million, I would pay it out of there.

SPEAKER_02 18:44

Yeah, or or sit down and I I if you have an advisor, this is what your advisor should be doing. If you don't, you need to do a little tax planning. Yeah. Are you in a higher bracket now than you might be in the future? Do some tax planning. Are you in the same conversation? Are you in the same bracket now as you might be in the future? There's no real benefit to a Roth conversion in either one of those scenarios. If you're in a lower bracket now than you might be in the future, yay, Roth conversions, but don't pay it out of the IRAs, pay it out of the brokerage.

unknown 19:19

Trevor Burrus, Jr.

SPEAKER_04 19:19

I think Roth IRA Roth conversions, they're going to look back in 20 years, it's going to be one of those things that's way overrated. I think I've said that before.

SPEAKER_02 19:26

Well, because here's what paying the tax. And we've meant we mentioned this early on that we're overconfident, that we think too much of ourselves. We have these mammoth brains. You know, sometimes I look at the dog laying with her head under the couch, thinking she's all the way under the couch, which she really isn't, but as long as her head's there, she's under the couch. I look at her and I go, maybe there's an advantage to having a little brain. Just life's easier. Easier.

SPEAKER_04 19:52

All you gotta remember is how to get home and when the through food is served.

SPEAKER_02 19:55

This is a symptom of big brain disease. We have big brains and we overthink everything.

SPEAKER_04 20:01

No, I think that you make a good point, though, Ted. You should talk to an advisor about tax planning.

SPEAKER_02 20:06

You with all that money. Certainly in the the the You're Yeah. Man, when you have that kind of money, and believe me, advisors are going to give you very good deals.

SPEAKER_04 20:17

They're gonna give you a lot of in terms of managing the money.

SPEAKER_02 20:20

You have a really good fiduciary advisor. I know that at a seven and a half million dollar account, our fees would be you'd look at our fees and go, wait a minute, that's lower than some managed mutual funds.

SPEAKER_04 20:31

Yes, it would be. It'd be inexpensive. So but uh for you, the tax work would alone probably pay

IPOs and Index Rules

SPEAKER_04 20:36

for it. Um great questions. In a follow-up to a recent Talking Real Money episode, I think it was where we were talking about. Thank you. I just said that in the first time. You said a recent one. I did, I'd say it again. The last one. Oh, a recent talking real money episode where we discussed the fact that the SP has decided to change their rules and allow some of the really big IPOs to join the SP earlier. And by the way, one thing we didn't make completely clear is once those are in the SP index, all the people managing funds using that index are required then to go buy them. I guess I didn't make that clear. But anyway, so the question on the table was as you uh many of you know, we work with a fund family called Dimensional. We worked with one called Avantis, etc. We thought we'd ask them.

SPEAKER_02 21:26

We work with all these guys.

SPEAKER_04 21:27

We do. We thought we'd we'd ask them. So I and all praise to Dimensional for quick. I sent this the evening of the recording of the other podcast, and they immediately wrote back. In short, they say dimensional research has shown that IPOs tend to underperform their industry benchmarks within the first year. In a similar vein, lockup periods during the first six to twelve months following an IPA reduces the liquidity of a security. That's something we touched on. As such, dimensional does not include IPOs in their first year of their. Portfolios. In other words, they wait a full year, see what's going to happen. And then uh the officers.

SPEAKER_02 22:04

Are they going to succumb to pressure and change the rule, though?

SPEAKER_04 22:07

I asked them, they said no. So here's the thing: they they mentioned a recent example of all birds that was.

SPEAKER_02 22:13

Oh, the shoe company.

SPEAKER_04 22:14

That's right.

SPEAKER_02 22:17

I ordered a pair of all birds once. They were not good shoes. I did not like them.

SPEAKER_04 22:20

Well, apparently you're not alone there because the company went public with an IPO of $2.2 billion in 2021. And they recently announced they're selling the whole firm for $39 million. Now, I can't run the percentage decrease there, but that's rather substantial to go from $2.2 billion to $39 billion, $39 million. And the first day return was 93%. So think how excited you were then when you uh jumped in. So uh underperforming IPOs, they say, tend to mirror the behavior of other security characteristics with lower expected returns, including small growth, low profitability, and high investment stocks. We exclude those stocks as well. We've talked about that many times. But so they are not going to bend the rules to allow Elon Musk to be the first trillion dollar man, et cetera, et cetera. So good for you, Dimensional.

SPEAKER_02 23:09

Yeah, and and Dimensional has pretty strong, uh they have a they have a very powerful set of rules, and they don't change them easily. They need a lot of data. They don't just need some nudging from investors. Oh, and uh, by the way, that is a ninety-eight point two three percent loss, Don.

SPEAKER_04 23:26

Rather substantial decrease. Let's not.

SPEAKER_02 23:29

98.23%.

SPEAKER_04 23:31

Okay. That's crazy. Which I imagine because it was probably close to 100, by the way. Just the the question at hand would be whether you and I owned it. I wonder if we did. We should probably look into that. I bet we're not going to be able to do it. Well, how quickly did they go from uh well, 2021 is when they went public, so uh let's see.

SPEAKER_02 23:52

I want to see how quickly because could could we have owned it in one of our Avantis or dimensional?

SPEAKER_04 23:58

Maybe. It's hard to know. So but it would have been a very small percentage of a portfolio.

SPEAKER_02 24:03

Yeah, it would have been tiny. Let's see. They went um let's go back. Their IPO was there, and uh oh yeah, so we might have owned it in a small portion. Uh but we but but because they wait a year, yeah. Let's see, it went public and 2021 it said. Yeah, no, it's October of 2021. So they would have had to wait till October of 2022 if they even put it in then. But let's just say they did. The stock when it came out, it was four hundred dollars when it came out, and by October of twenty twenty-two they bought in at fifty-five dollars.

SPEAKER_04 24:42

So we didn't get, you know, a big hunk of the decrease. Right. Yeah. Good to know. That's why you wait, see how things are gonna work out. I think that's a good strategy.

SPEAKER_02 24:52

Yeah. Thank you all. Thanks for listening. Thanks for the questions. Thanks for all the questions. You're sending in a lot of those. Thanks for doing that thing that we've been begging you to do for I don't know, what 15 years now? How many years have we been doing this? 16. Okay, long time. Um, to tell friends. We see that in the numbers. We can actually look at our numbers and go, look, they're telling their friends about the podcast. Thank you for doing that. And uh keep doing that, please. And send your questions in at talkingrealmoney.com. And also, this is an honest to goodness, real live offer. I'm telling you, this is not anything to be worried about. If you've got one of those really complex portfolio issues, or you said, I just want to talk to an advisor to see if this is a wise decision, and you don't want to get sold something. That's the biggest problem with going to some advisor you're gonna be. You're scared.

SPEAKER_04 25:40

I get it. Yeah, right.

SPEAKER_02 25:41

I don't want a meeting with an advisor, they're gonna try and sell me something. We're not, we're not gonna charge you for uh, you know, less than an hour. If you go over if you want to go over that and you want us to like do your portfolio stuff and manage your your financial life, well, we're gonna charge you for that. But we'll give stuff away because we truly do want to help everybody. We do. We've always wanted to do that. That's the way we established Vestry, our original firm. So go to talkingrealmoney.com, click the button that says meet an advisor, and you can even type in there, I want to meet with Tom. Most of the time, unless he's on one of his many vacations, he'll meet with you. Yeah, I'll be here. Actually, the funny thing is sometimes he'll meet with you on vacation because he over he he overthought the vacation. He thought it was gonna be a lot more fun than it really was, and he was just sitting by the pool going, I'm kind of bored. I think I'll talk to somebody.

SPEAKER_04 26:31

That does happen. Yes, that's true.

SPEAKER_02 26:33

Yes, that's true. I'm sorry. See? I knew it. So uh do all those things, keep listening. You know, if you like what you hear, leave a nice review at one of the review things, uh, but you don't have to. And uh keep on uh joining us five days a week as we are talking real money.

SPEAKER_01 26:53

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SPEAKER_00 27:07

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