Ep. 1997: The Lemmings Didn’t Jump
Don and Tom use Disney’s infamous lemming myth to explain investor herd behavior, recency bias, and the danger of chasing whatever has recently been hot. Then they answer questions about simplifying a diversified portfolio, evaluating a long-held annuity, and why “Bank on Yourself” whole-life strategies create more problems than they solve.
00:00 The lemming film clip
00:56 The lemmings didn’t jump
02:21 The lemming corollary
04:38 Herd behavior in tech, crypto, and markets
07:58 When the crowd is wise—and when it isn’t
12:48 Listener questions begin
13:16 Simplifying a diversified portfolio
16:32 Should she keep the annuity?
20:40 The problems with “Bank on Yourself”
25:58 Wrap-up
27:11 Disclosures
Questions? Comments? Click the microphone at TalkingRealMoney.com.
00:20 - Lemming Myths Exposed
02:25 - Crowd Psychology and Market Behavior
04:29 - Lucky 13: Real-World Examples
08:02 - Crowds, Peer Pressure, and Wisdom
12:48 - Fund Choices and Rebalancing
16:31 - The Annuity Dilemma
20:40 - Why Bank on Yourself Fails
27:11 - Podcast Disclosures
Ahead lies the Arctic shore and beyond the sea. And still the little animals surge forward.
Lemming Myths Exposed
SPEAKER_02Their frenzy takes them tumbling down the terrace cliffs. Creating tiny avalanches of sliding soil and rocks. Seemingly indestructible limits. They reach the final precipice. This is the last chance to turn back. Yep, over they go. Testing themselves partly out into space.
SPEAKER_05So, Lemmox flinging themselves off of cliffs in the Arctic. Myth or reality? It's a myth. They don't fling themselves off of cliffs. But that was a Disney documentary from I think 1957. No, 1958, according to the book I'm reading right now. When we were when we were just small children.
SPEAKER_04Nah, actually less than that, but okay.
SPEAKER_05Okay, I was a small child. It was won an Academy Award for lemming flinging. Turns out the lemmings really didn't jump. They flung them off the cliff. They said, we can make it look like they're jumping, but we'll just They put them on a fake snow covered turntable and launched them out into the And actually it wasn't even filmed in the Arctic. It was filmed in Alberta, which is about as far from the Arctic as you can get. I mean the you know the Arctic Sea.
SPEAKER_04So what did they win did they win an Academy Award for Animal Protection or what was it?
SPEAKER_05Nobody cared back then about animals. No, that was no lemmings were killed in the making of this. No lemmings. Well, we don't know that. You're flinging the lemmings off a cliff.
SPEAKER_03Yeah.
SPEAKER_04And why in the world are we talking about that? What where did that come from? I'm I'm reading from the good book called Financial Physics, and somehow we arrive at lemmings.
SPEAKER_05The lemming corollary.
SPEAKER_04Ah. It's not even a rule because
Crowd Psychology and Market Behavior
SPEAKER_04it's not big enough, I guess. Yeah, it's not big enough.
SPEAKER_05That's why it's a corollary. And and it's all about how we tend to follow the crowd off the cliff to our demise sometimes because we're still.
SPEAKER_03Please put me on the turntable if you could. I would be very pleased about that.
SPEAKER_05The turntable story is totally true. It's just shocking. You can go online and watch it, right? I I watched us that's where I got the audio for the segment, it was off of YouTube.
SPEAKER_04Because lemmings really do not follow each other off the clip. But they do follow.
SPEAKER_05Do we? Yeah. Oh, come on. Think about it. When when the market is super hot, what's everybody doing? They're buying when it's high, and then after it's already gone down a bunch, they're selling when it's low.
SPEAKER_04Let's talk about the behavior. Why do they do that?
SPEAKER_05Because we like to we believe that something that has happened is going to continue to happen. Just because it has happened, we get into uh it we get into a mindset that this will continue forever. We we don't believe that things can turn on a dime.
SPEAKER_04Like a turn to do that. I argued, as you know, I was spent the weekend with my brother at uh brothers, and I argue with my attorney brother about only using past tense when it came to financial matters. He's like, no, no, no. I go, no, it's not going anywhere, it's gone. It's this moment on anyway. So just for point.
SPEAKER_05Yeah, it should always be that because everybody's so set in their ways from following the crowd off the cliff. Exactly.
SPEAKER_04But I think there's another part of all this, the the the herd mentality. We want to be part of something because it feels safer. It was safer 3,000 years ago, right, to be part of a group than it was to be wandering around on your own.
SPEAKER_05Well, yeah, if you were if you were out on your own in the wilderness, then you were, you know, you were attacked and robbed and killed and beaten and whatever. But if you were part of a group, there was safety in numbers. Much like a herd of sheep. You ever notice the the the sheep all try to get in the middle of the group? It's like, I'm going in the middle because you guys, you guys get it first.
SPEAKER_04Nothing bad's gonna happen in here. They're gonna grab
Lucky 13: Real-World Examples
SPEAKER_04you out there. Um, and there's some pretty clear examples because you you and by the way, this is this is rule 13. Oh, the lucky 13. Lucky 13, my lucky. From the book Financial Physics by one Don McDonald, which we're following each and every Monday here on Talking World Money. There's some pretty recent cases, I think, that are really blatant. Um, you can go to tech stocks in the early 2000s, right? I mean, or late 90s, early 2000s, or everybody was getting rich on AOL. Yep. Or didn't, but you know, pets.com. It didn't matter that the companies were barely had any revenue or certainly weren't making money, but technology is all about the future. Um, you can fast forward to cryptocurrency about 2020 when everybody's sitting at home not doing anything, trading, getting rich. And by the way, also as part of that discussion I just mentioned, someone else is telling me the only reason you don't like crypto is because you're really old. Said, well, yeah, that's part of it.
SPEAKER_05Sure.
SPEAKER_04That's really the age thing.
SPEAKER_05Uh, because when you're younger, you're more stupid. I'm sorry, but admit it. Come on. Did you think you were the smartest thing going in your 20s, Tom? When you were in your 20s. You come on.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, I think so.
SPEAKER_05We were cocky, we were young, we were confident, we thought we knew everything. And now when you look back, you go, Oh my God, if I could do it over again, I would not do any of that stupidity.
SPEAKER_04Well, and I made we've talked about this before. My bad decisions as an investor in my 20s and 30s. Uh, I think, and there's recent now, with certainly with tech stocks, certainly with the Magnificent Seven, but also the trend towards only owning the U.S. market. I don't need to own anything anywhere else because the U.S. market makes all the money. That's where everything's happening. That's where the innovation is. That's why companies here do so much better. Uh, but people, there's another part of the whole crowd thing we can talk about. But yes, people want to be part of the crowd because they feel like if something bad happens, it's not going to happen to me because I'm part of everybody. We're all in this together. It's not gonna be that bad, but that's not a good decision.
SPEAKER_05Well, and it's also recency bias, which is one of those behavioral things that gets us in a lot of trouble. Uh again, the assumption that what has recently happened is going to continue into at least the near future, and that somehow, somehow I will magically, or someone who's much smarter than I am, will magically know the exact moment when I should stop doing whatever it is I'm doing, whether it's buying or selling. That, you know, the market's gone way down. I'm gonna get out, I'm gonna sell, I'm gonna sell, I'm gonna sell until somebody tells me it's gonna go up again, and then I'm gonna get back in. Then that's when I'm getting back in. Or there's the obverse, which is the I'm gonna get out when somebody says it's time to get out. The problem is they don't ring a bell, they don't sound an alarm, you are not directed to the exits. As a matter of fact, you are the means by which those who m got to the exit sooner survive the fire. It's you that they sacrifice, you who stay in longer than you probably should have, uh, if you're a trader. And uh the only people who really come out on top are the ones who don't jump off the cliff.
SPEAKER_04Or the ones are charging other people for saying that they know when the cli when it's not jump off the cliff. Yeah, I mean, I just read the book uh The Fund about Ray Dalio, who again is telling people, Oh, you better be nervous right now, better be safe. And he's been wrong about you know, like 19 recessions over the last 15 years.
SPEAKER_05And yet we believe you need to be careful, you
Crowds, Peer Pressure, and Wisdom
SPEAKER_05need to be safe. We really believe that. And that brings us to the other side of this crowd coin. Uh that is the you think you might have the ability to know when things are gonna go bad. Well, what the market is, is what the crowd believes, and what the crowd believes is what is. Really, the crowd creates its own reality. Uh and and that's why you can't fight against the market. The market is the market is today fairly whatever the market's worth today, whatever all the stocks in aggregate in the world are worth today, is truly their value because it's everybody on the planet who invests saying that's what they're worth.
SPEAKER_04It's the greatest voting machine available. And it's available well soon, it's going to be 24-7, but basically every day you can go vote on that. We don't recommend that. But there's this point that you make, Don, by the way, back to Rule 13, the the or pardon me, corollary 13, the author makes a very good point that much of this is peer pressure. We feel the pressure of what other people are doing, right? Every you remember the magazine that had uh back in the late 90s, everybody's getting rich except me. I got my grass has got to be as green as the guy next door, right? Et cetera, et cetera. And we feel that pressure, and that's when bad decisions are made. But you're talking about sort of the wisdom of crowds. There's been many studies showed that if you vote, if you add everybody up and then you take the middle of that, that it's gonna it's gonna be right. That number generally is right. So you can be more comfortable with that aspect of it. But what you don't want to do is, as you said, tech, crypto, all these things that come up. And and by the way, these always feel like short-term thinking to me when it comes to wisdom of the crowd. It's not like, well, I gotta think about the next 20 years. I'm thinking about right now because of what's going on right now. That's where the danger really is. That's where people make bad decisions that I see every almost every day as investors. And you know, the the there's a there's an old game that was played.
SPEAKER_05It was a promotion by radio stations back in the old days. It was done at county fairs. Yep. And it was the old jelly beans in a jar. Guess how many jelly beans are in a jar? And if you get a lot of people participating, it's funny. The bigger the the the participation, the the participation, the uh the greater accuracy you get in those guesses. If you if you take all the guesses, you add them up, and you divide them by all the guesses, you end up within in almost every case, you end up within a few jelly beans of getting it exactly right.
SPEAKER_04It's fascinating to see that's been done many, many times. Um, yeah, again, a thousand people come in and say, no, that one person says there's three, one person says there's three hundred thousand, you end up somewhere in that 150,000 range right after you add them all up. It's it that's a fascinating study. But again, back to as an investor, what should you do? Well, really, at the end of the day, you have to learn to tune out all those messages, right? Because most of them are gonna lead you the wrong way. You need a long-term plan, you need to be patient, but uh you just got to ignore a lot of the your friends and neighbors are telling you because that's where the trouble really starts.
SPEAKER_05And well, while we all hate being boring and average, average is what most of us are. We're mostly average in every aspect of our life. We're pretty darned average. You're not the smartest person out there, although you may think you are. Uh you're not the best necessarily at much of anything. It's r it it remember, the best is just one person. Everybody else is below the best. And most of those are average. And if you can just be an average investor, you can do better than most investors. That's kind of funny. Being average is above average.
SPEAKER_04Way better. I mean, we can show you study after study. And by the way, richest, I think we have to agree that in our lifetimes it's gonna be hard for anybody to be richer than Elon Musk. So you can let that one go too. What's he worth like a trillion or something?
SPEAKER_05A trillion dollars, yeah.
SPEAKER_04Something ridiculous. So you gotta let that go, and you gotta agree to be average, you've got to take market returns, you gotta be patient, and you just gotta get rid of the rest of the stuff that's coming at you because there's a lot of it. But uh that's really, as I say, where I see the trouble starting when people do take ideas from other people to tell them you gotta do this.
SPEAKER_05Yeah, so the crowd is wise in one respect and stupid in another. So follow them, but don't off the don't follow them off the cliff.
SPEAKER_04Not onto the flywheel either. I'm sorry. Somebody in the lemming community is gonna get mad at me for that one, I guess.
SPEAKER_05Are there lemming lovers? Lemming lovers.
Fund Choices and Rebalancing
SPEAKER_04Lemming lovers.
SPEAKER_05All right. Uh I think it's question time now. You send in your questions. You sent in quite a few of them lately. Thank you for that. And keep sending them at talkingrealmoney.com. Click on the ask a question button or record your questions for the Friday QA with the mic in the corner there, the lower right corner, I believe. So now Tom, Tom is getting Tom is getting happier by the day as his pile of paper increases. Go for it, Tom. Let's let's reduce the pile.
SPEAKER_04Save a tree. Ah, New Milford, Connecticut. It's Richard who writes, Hello, Don and Tom. I'm 57 and have been saving for retirement for decades. That's awesome. I'm just getting around to funding a brokerage account. In past podcasts, I've heard Don say his brokerage holds AVGE. That's the Avantis Global Equity Fund. And he was considering adding DFAW. I've also heard Roxy say she prefers brokerage accounts to have multiple funds to draw from. I'm not recalling either of those comments, but I will believe you. Take your word, Richard. Okay.
SPEAKER_05He listens to the show, not me.
SPEAKER_04Exactly. Ah, he says, I was previously using an ultimate buy and hold strategy. I believe that's Paul Merriman's 10 fund strategy. Pretty sure. But if simplified to a one fund of funds approach for my IRAs, my brokerage has the UBF, that's ultimate buy and hold, as well as A V G E. Now that would be a massive overlap if you held the 10 funds that Paul recommends and AVGE. He says one third of it in the 10 funds, two thirds in A V G. What to do? Uh I'm fine continuing with the UBH approach. If there's a benefit to it, I'm sure you're going to tell me I'm overthinking this.
SPEAKER_05Well, we all overthink it. It's what we do, unless we're jumping off a cliff and then we're not thinking at all.
SPEAKER_04Getting on that flywheel before the end of the show.
SPEAKER_05Yeah. Tom's right.
SPEAKER_04It's you the ultimate buy and hold strategy or AVG or a combination of the state.
SPEAKER_05Here's the thing.
SPEAKER_04It depends on you.
SPEAKER_05Ultimate buy and hold is more work. It does require regular rebalancing, whereas an AVGE or a DFAW or whatever it might be rebalances for you all the time. They're always rebalancing, constantly rebalancing. So I like the let somebody else do it for me, and that's why I don't have 10 funds in my brokerage account. I could put 10 funds in and manage them. I'm perfectly capable. Do I want to? That's the question. No, I don't want to.
SPEAKER_04Why? When I can get a lot of people, the only answer to why, we touched on this in a recent podcast, would be if you're drawing income off of here and you want to be able to sell the things that have gone up the most, see emerging markets and whatever the last year, you top those off. When in all a total fund, there's no, you're just taking whatever, whatever, whatever the return. Good point. Yeah.
SPEAKER_05So you can use rebalancing to generate income. Yeah.
SPEAKER_04Correct. But other than that, we don't know. We've discussed this too. In 20 years, if you come back to us, won't come back to Don or myself, but to whoever's still manning the mics here. Uh, if you come back and say, wait, I bought that one fund and it underproduced by 2% a year to the 10 fund, we're gonna say we wouldn't know. It might happen. We don't know that.
SPEAKER_05Um, so I'm willing to take that chance for the simplicity. That's me personally. It has to be like everything else in this thing. It's a trade. There's no absolute. There's no 100% of the time you should always do this. It's just nothing is absolute. There are gray areas on every question.
SPEAKER_04Now, I think you're wrong about one thing. There is one absolute. If you put a lemming on a flywheel, it will fly.
SPEAKER_05Unless it's a smart lemming and it runs in the opposite direction
The Annuity Dilemma
SPEAKER_05of the turntable.
SPEAKER_04I'm sorry, that's not right. Boca Raton, Florida. Jenny writes, Hello, I bought an annuity on June 28th, 2012. No, we don't have a pill to help that. Uh, I'm trying to decide if I should start with drawing on it or hold it or cash it in. I invested $150,000. Here are the facts. The death benefit, $353,000. My two sons are my beneficiaries. The annuity date is May 2049.
SPEAKER_05When it becomes an annuity.
SPEAKER_04When it when it annuities 30, that's uh 37 years from the time you bought it. That seems a long time. Surrender value today, $348,000. Surrender charge at the end of 2029. Oh, I see. The surrender goes it goes out, what we call out of surrender, at in December of 2029, which would be three years from now.
SPEAKER_05Holy, when did she buy it?
SPEAKER_04She bought it in 2012. That seems very unlikely that it would have a second.
SPEAKER_05That is a really long surrender period. Man, somebody got a big fat commission on that sale.
SPEAKER_04The contingent deferred sales charge is $4,000.
SPEAKER_05Oh, that's not that high.
SPEAKER_04That's not that high. Lifetime income basis, $360. Lifetime income enhanced guarantee, $262. God, I hate these things.
SPEAKER_05Yeah, I do too, because they're designed to be complicated.
SPEAKER_04They are. Guaranteed lifecome income per year, $18,000, based on the highest the value's ever reached. She's $72 and will get is only getting $2,000 a month in Social Security, so she bought this as a supplement. I can live without the distributions. I'm in real estate owner income property. The annuity is Greek to me. Doggone it, it's Turkish to me. It's Greek to all of us.
SPEAKER_05It appears to me you've got a a lot of cash value. You've got a very tiny surrender charge. You've got a product that's probably paying next to nothing. You don't need the income. Your kids don't need the death benefit. Why would you keep it?
SPEAKER_04We don't know what kind of annuity this is.
SPEAKER_05I don't care, but I don't I really don't care because the reality is there aren't annuities out there, really, that are gonna make much more than five or six percent a year. Best case scenario. Best case scenario. Trevor Burrus, Jr.
SPEAKER_04You could take the three and three hundred and fifty thousand, pop it in a sixty-forty, and probably out-earn that. It's all liquid.
SPEAKER_05No, at her age it's probably more like a 70-30 or a I mean uh uh 30-70 or a 60%.
SPEAKER_04Well, she's 72, she's not that old.
SPEAKER_05Well, she's getting old like me. Okay, maybe not. Maybe 50-50. I don't think 60-40.
SPEAKER_04Okay. So but a 50-50 going back has made six or seven, complete liquidity, cost is lower, et cetera, et cetera.
SPEAKER_05And actually for her kids, it will probably if they it gets left to them, they'll probably make out because again, they get a couple of things. One, if uh they get this at a stepped-up cost basis. That's right. And they pr they very likely are going to get better returns. Insurance companies are known for keeping a lot of the returns for themselves.
SPEAKER_04Yeah. So I guess what you're hearing here, Jenny, is uh probably cash this out. Yeah.
SPEAKER_05And don't deal with this person again because I have this sneakin notion that they made a really huge undisclosed commission with that long a surrender period. Huge commission.
SPEAKER_04That's just crazy. I am listening to a podcast right now about a guy that was uh he had they said 500 accounts, managing six million dollars. I was like, that's a pretty small number for 500 accounts. But he was churning annuities. He was buying them and then selling them. There you and the client was having to pay the surrender, and then he was turning around buying another one, getting another big check.
SPEAKER_05Yeah. Wow. That's illegal.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, it well, I we're we haven't reached the end, but I think the end's coming soon for him. I hope it's a good idea.
SPEAKER_05You know, even though he's in one of these industries that's so horribly regulated, yeah, that's just so blatantly bad that they ought to get nailed.
SPEAKER_04Yeah. Well, I'm I'm thinking that will happen on the drive home today. Oh good gas.
SPEAKER_05Oh good.
SPEAKER_04There's some satisfaction.
Why Bank on Yourself Fails
SPEAKER_04Kirk from Carmel, Indiana writes uh bank on yourself. Every time I hear this scam, I get indigestion given my recently almost retired career as an insurance wholesaler. Seems the only folks that have anything good to say about this alleged strategy are the agents slash industry shills that stand to profit mightily from it. Might you unpack this topic to hopefully keep innocent customers or clients from being taken advantage of? If you've already addressed this on the podcast, maybe reference which one I can go back and listen. I don't know.
SPEAKER_05I have no idea yet.
SPEAKER_04It would have been a long time, but a long time ago. Um, I don't believe in ever, there's somebody in the business, ever using life insurance as an accumulation device. The only use for considering permanent life insurance is to solve permanent problems, maybe estate tax exposure, family business succession, et cetera, et cetera. Even then, life insurance might be a tool to use, never the tool. Charitable giving, uh gifting, grats can all be part of a broader plan. So bank on yourself. You haven't heard as much about it lately. Probably because it just needs a as he said, a big thing. Oh, I forget. I don't know.
SPEAKER_05They're all really giving it.
SPEAKER_04Indexed IUL, blah, blah, blah, you know, the whole thing.
SPEAKER_05Yeah, it's it's um bank on yourself is buying, as he said, and oh, thank you for being an Honest former insurance guy? Wholesaler. Wholesaler. Yeah, he was an insurance guy, though. What they're doing is these people are selling you a generally a high commissioned whole life cash value insurance policy, death ben death insurance policy. And you borrow the money back from your policy. Oh my gosh. Uh yeah, you're only you're borrowing from yourself, so you don't have to pay anything on that. There's all kinds of things. Banking on yourself. There is one insurance dividends are not getting guaranteed. They change. They change. They can change. Generally the better ones of these with the the bigger numbers are non-guaranteed. And even the National Association of Security Commissioners doesn't they they criticize these products, the NAIC and their insurance shills. The biggest problems is is the policy loans. Um the unpaid interest continues to compound and it reduces the death benefit as it compounds. You are pay you are paying something. And if if for any reason you don't make a payment, you can lose your policy. And uh it it creates a pot all more potential problems than it solves. It's really, really, really good for the people selling the product. It is generally pretty darn terrible and just a big fat fib prevarication for um those who were buying them.
SPEAKER_04Well, no, but and but you gotta go back to the beginning of this question. Kirk absolutely points out the right thing. Number one, insurance of any type, I don't think, should be used for accumulation. No, that's not what it's designed. It was not what it was.
SPEAKER_05It was the bastardization of the concept. They've taken something that served a useful purpose, death insurance, and turned it into an investment vehicle to further their profits. Which is okay. That's the American way, but but at least be honest about what it's doing. That's all I'm asking. I don't care if you rip people off legally. Rip people off legally. Just tell them you're ripping them off.
SPEAKER_04I see. Okay. Make sure you make it clear.
SPEAKER_05If they want to continue to give you the money after you say, guess what? Here's all the downsides to this thing. And don't let the policy tell them what the downside is. Speak the words to your client.
SPEAKER_04Okay, that's you're never gonna get that. But so yes, insurance, sure. If you want to insure your life, if you want to insure your home, if you'd like to insure your car, whatever other thing. Ah, we're I know I because I heard you on the uh, I think the Friday podcast when someone accused you of saying You don't even believe in P and C insurance. Yeah, Don has property.
SPEAKER_05I have my property and casualty insurance, but I gotta tell you, if I lived on the coast and owned my house free and clear, some of the premiums I've seen over there in Florida, I would go without P and C. I would just say, okay, houses are write-off.
SPEAKER_04Done. Yeah. Crazy. Anyway, um, but this is uh I I like the word you use, bastardization. Maybe because it's just a great word, but that's a bastardization of life insurance.
SPEAKER_05At the end of the yeah, oh, and one other thing I neglected to mention, not only you gotta you gotta keep you've got to keep up all of the insurance premiums. Yeah, your policy can lapse and and then all of those loans become immediately taxable.
SPEAKER_04You want you want to bank on yourself, buy term insurance, and invest the money separately.
SPEAKER_05There. That's a great bank on yourself strategy.
SPEAKER_04And it could be in your name, in the bank of your choice. And you own the money. Oh, and you could get it tomorrow if you want. You get it, yeah, so please.
SPEAKER_05Tom with great advice.
SPEAKER_04Just finally took a while, but got more questions?
SPEAKER_05Send them in to us at talkingrealmoney.com. It's so easy. Just go to the ask a question button or speak them with the button in the lower right-hand corner, and I'll do those on Fridays. And by the by, you have an opportunity, if you'd like, to meet with one of our lovely 100% fiduciary advisors who we promise will uh not try to sell you anything, and there's no cost if you want to meet with someone like Tom or No, not just like time Tom.
SPEAKER_04You know, I'm I'm home alone now. I'm an empty nester, so I'm looking for calls. So call them up. Call them up.
SPEAKER_05Did your wife leave you too?
SPEAKER_04Basically. Uh she took a vote over the weekend. That was the end of that. Sorry. Done.
SPEAKER_05All right. So so spend some time with Tom. He's lonely. Go to talkingrealmoney.com, click on the Meet and Advisor button and fill that thing out. Thanks for listening, and please join us every weekday as over they go. Testing themselves bodily out into space. Oh, wait, no, that was Lemmings going off the cliff. I meant.
SPEAKER_03Talking real money. Talking real money.
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