Fear Sells Gold

SPEAKER_02 0:05

Your guns to a really great financial future. Tom and Don are talking real money.

Welcome to Talking Real Money

SPEAKER_03 0:12

We've got up just in the nick of time, not a moment too soon. We left radio right before the whole thing fell apart. Hi, I'm Don McDonald. Tom Cox over there. This is Talking Real Money the Podcast. It used to be Talking Real Money, the radio show and podcast, but not long ago we stopped doing the radio show. But in our place now, on the station we used to air on is a new show. Yeah. Okay. It's called Striking Gold with Kenny Michaels. And what's it about, do you think? Well, here. I look I don't need to explain it to you. Let me let you listen to a little bit of it, and then we'll talk about what he's doing. We're gonna comment on it, Kenny. Commenting. First Amendment protected and fair use. Here, listen.

SPEAKER_00 1:06

One thing I need everybody to make clear, please, is every day you wake up, you're a day older. And your account is going nowhere because of the situation that we're faced with. The debt, the inflation, the tariffs, the war, the sinking dollar. Jamie Diamond, the head of Chase Bank, recently came out on an interview with Yahoo Finance and said expect gold to hit 10,000 healings by the end of the year. That's crazy. Oh wait.

SPEAKER_03 1:35

Jamie Diamond from Chase is a gold bug. He thinks gold is a good investment. There's this crazy little thing called context. Here's the actual interview from a fortune conference.

SPEAKER_05 1:48

Gold. Overvalued or undervalued?

SPEAKER_03 1:51

I don't know. I mean, I I'm not a gold buyer. It costs 4% to own it. It could easily go to 5,000 or 10,000 in environments like this. Wait, he's not a gold buyer, it costs 4% to own it? Hmm. I could have given you a longer clip, but I just can't listen to the guy very long. It's all about take all the money from your retirement accounts and put them in gold. Take all the money in your bank and put it in gold. Take everything and put it in gold. And then he goes on to say that your broker won't put you in gold because he doesn't get a commission on gold. Well, but this guy gets a commission on selling you gold, and it's probably much bigger than your broker would get. And uh well, there you go. That's the show that replaced us, or that's the host of the show that replaced us.

SPEAKER_05 2:36

Well, he's persuasive. Persuas really? I think in an East Coast, no offense to those of you listening on the East Coast, that wouldn't appeal to us on this side of the country as much as maybe on the other side.

SPEAKER_03 2:49

This is why we've not done as well in the U.S. No, I think there's something to that in Southeast Florida as well I think that's right.

SPEAKER_05 2:55

Yeah. We're not barking.

SPEAKER_03 2:57

And I I think that's where he lives. I think he lives in Southeast Florida.

Gold vs. Stocks: A Heated Debate

SPEAKER_05 3:01

But okay. But look, we're not fans of uh gold as an investment. For reasons previously stated and for returns previously cited. Um we think we can make a pretty good case of that. We wouldn't have to go into all that now. But here's what we do need to go into.

SPEAKER_03 3:19

Unless of course you speculated in it recently. But purely software. We'll talk about that in a minute.

SPEAKER_05 3:24

Yeah, we'll talk about that in a moment. But here's the thing. And in Kenny's case, and I went and looked, because he he says gold has been a better investment than stocks for the last twenty-five years. I went back and looked. That's true. Because this last year has been so dramatic. Um so I have to admit he's okay. Wait, what was the time frame that he said? Since 2000. So 25 plus years. Um again, that's fine. If you go back to 1928, by the way, gold has made a little over five percent a year, and stocks have made a little over eight percent a year. So stocks have done far better. That's an annualized number, too, in the last almost hundred years. Okay. But I I'll grant him that. I I can there's things that he brings up I don't like, but I won't take umbrage with. But here's where I do get mad when I listen. Um first of all, his attitude. I do not like the fact that that he's so strident, I'm right, you're wrong, etc. Okay, we I I guess I need to get over that. But for example, on the radio show, he discussed how the United States Postal Service is going broke. And if your money is in the TSP, the Thrift Savings Plan, the federal government, that your money is somehow in danger because the federal government and the the Postal Service is in fiscal and financial bad condition, that your money's in danger. That is an outrageously idiotic statement. Your money in the TSP is no different than mine because it's invested in stocks and bonds. The underlying assets are companies or pieces of paper that are issued primarily by the U.S. government that have always paid you back. So that that's the kind of scare tactics that I really dislike. The fear-mongering that I really dislike in a way to sell people. And I know it sells people because I I'm sure people have been piling into gold this last three or four months. Probably because it's gone up.

SPEAKER_03 5:25

Right. I mean, gold has skyrocketed because of the fear of instability. We've got we've got we had the tariffs. Well, we had COVID, and then we had the tariffs, and then we had uh uh war in the Middle East, and all of these things scare people, and they want to do something to protect their wealth, and they feel like gold is the means by which to do that. And Kenny has taken advantage of the current situation, which is his right. Yep. Uh but he neglects to mention yeah, it's done well in the last 20 years, but how did gold do between 1980 and 2000 over that 20-year period? The prior 20. Yeah. How did it do?

SPEAKER_05 6:07

I'm thinking it didn't do uh I know it peaked out at about 1980, and I don't think it made a whole lot of money in the next one.

SPEAKER_03 6:12

No, no, as a matter of fact, from 1980 to to right around 2000, it uh lost 70 percent of its value. Yeah. 70 percent loss. It didn't break even until about 2025 because starting in 2000, we we got a real big spike in gold. So gold has been rising since about 2000, but gold does this over and over and over again, and it's done it throughout its history. It has these long-term declines followed by these speculative spikes, and that's because gold is not an investment, gold is a speculative vehicle.

Misleading Claims About Gold Investments

SPEAKER_05 6:48

Yeah, and and the other so there are other arguments he made that that trouble me. For example, he suggested that you take money out of the bank, buy physical gold, because you're gonna make a lot more money on that physical gold than you would in the bank. Now, those are two very different types of investments, one, number two, very different types of liquidity. But history will have shown that that has not always been the case. And there is absolutely just because something's done well recently, absolutely 100% sure that that means nothing about the future. Um, but here's the one that really got me down and really irritated me. Again, if you have arguments that are legit, I'll let you carry the day on those arguments. But he then suggested that if you own physical gold in your individual retirement account, that when you take that gold out and spend it, you pay no tax on it. Now, I looked that up. Anything that comes out of your IRA, whether it's physical gold or Pokemon cards or whatever it is, you're supposed to pay tax on that. You get no special break because the money's in gold. That's still a taxable event anytime money comes out of that retirement type account. So yes, you could have a physical gold IRA, but you're still gonna be liable for the taxation on that as income, by the way, not as anything else that you would have to pay. So again, I don't like it when he throws in these arguments that that they're they're not legit. And overall, as someone else who came in my office when I was watching the video said, this is guy's just fear mongering. He's scaring people to death. Yeah, he is scaring people to death. By the way, he also talked about how countries are hoarding gold, China, Russia. Well, yeah, they are buying up gold. Why? Well, because they don't want to be as dependent on the U.S. dollar as they have been in the past. They still hold a lot of dollars. It's not like they've gotten rid of all those, they have bought more. So uh again, the reason this got me worked up was not because some of the things he's saying you could make a case for. I'm okay with that. But when he basically lies about all these other things, the TSP is in danger, you don't pay taxes, countries are hoarding this gold, so you need to do it too. That I really struggle with.

SPEAKER_03 9:04

Here's what he's doing. He's conflating again. He's playing a little marketing trick. He's trying to sell you a gold IRA. Gold IRAs, by the way, are very expensive. Their custodial fees are ridiculous because they're holding physical gold. So he's saying, well, buy a gold IRA. He's not specifying, he just used IRA. Okay? Notice that IRA. What he's talking about, though, so he's not lying, is a gold Roth IRA.

SPEAKER_05 9:33

Oh, okay.

SPEAKER_03 9:34

Well, yes, there's no you can take the gold out tax-free. But it's not because it's gold, it's because it's a Roth. But he's use he's conflating those two concepts to come up with a sales pitch that makes it sound like it has something to do with the gold. But it has absolutely nothing to do with the gold.

Gold IRAs: The Costly Truth

SPEAKER_05 9:51

That's a good point. Good point. So um, and by the way, uh to the states that are also stockpiling gold, I think it's what it's Wyoming and somebody else that's a commodity-laden state. Shame on you for uh for again saying that you need to do this. We're we're we're gonna start doing this stuff for the protection of the state. I d I don't think this is a we read about this in the Wall Street Journal some weeks back. This is not a good idea for the long haul. Let's just put it that way for the your your stakeholders in that particular was it Wyoming, I forget the other.

Preppers vs. Investors: A Survival Dilemma

SPEAKER_03 10:25

I don't remember what the other one was. Probably Nevada. I don't know. Uh and little message for all my prepper friends. Uh you survivalists, you end of days people who are hoarding gold because you think it's gonna help you come end of days. Uh look around at the smart members of your prepping community and you'll see they're doing something different than you. They're not going to Costco and buying those little nuggets of gold, or going to the gold guy, Kenny, and buying big chunks of gold. No, they're not. They're going to the gun store and they're buying lots of weaponry and tons of ammunition because they know that your food will be more important than your gold, and they're gonna come take your food away. So just you know, human nature, think about us for a minute. Think about the kind of creatures we are. Are they gonna want your gold? You go, hey, don't take my gun, don't take my my food, sir. I'll give you all my gold. And they're gonna take your food.

SPEAKER_05 11:32

Yeah. Guns, canned food, and ammo. The rest of it's not so high. The other part is don't listen to people that are pitching, and there's a lot of them. And now the voice is getting louder because we've had such a great year.

SPEAKER_03 11:46

So this guy's on like a stations.

SPEAKER_05 11:50

Said ninety stations.

SPEAKER_03 11:52

Yeah, he's buying time on all of these stations and he's spending we know how much it costs. A lot. Um in markets like the Seattle market, it's you know, it can be a couple thousand dollars an hour. Shouldn't it? So if he's doing that on ninety stations, can you imagine how much money he's making on the gold versus you?

SPEAKER_05 12:11

We should check with the stations, see if they're getting paid in by check or by gold. I'd just be curious to know how they pay the gold. We thank you for all of your questions lately. A lot of them. How have you been doing on the recorded ones?

SPEAKER_03 12:28

I don't know. You keep sending them to me.

SPEAKER_05 12:30

No, no, I mean the. Chad calls us from the Alexandria show. When they call and speak their voice, it's been a good record podcast. I've had six question Friday QA podcasts. The story came from the movie coming in with Titan.

SPEAKER_03 12:44

Fast and Furious, and that's what I think. Great question. Is that right? Do you know that Chad or not? Really nice comments.

SPEAKER_05 12:52

I just did the commercials for the Auschwitz in the world. I heard that. Yeah, that was really good. No, Cincinnati was it? Cincinnati, yeah. When he said that, oh, he got the wrong question. Not about me, regular at home and on the show. It's about how can we help you today?

SPEAKER_01 13:17

Uh so I had a question about the museum in uh Washington, but I've never seen the little small story before we begin to see.

SPEAKER_03 13:25

It does, I'll see.

SPEAKER_01 13:26

Uh, but you do you do send us questions and we really appreciate it. You can do it at talkingrillmoney.com on the ask a question button. It's so easy. You can type them, you can speak them.

SPEAKER_03 13:36

And sometimes we'll even sit down and have a lovely conversation.

Understanding International Equities

SPEAKER_01 13:39

What kind of question are you gonna ask on this on this podcast? And I was like, well, it's a financial question and it's about international equities. And she said, Why are you asking that question? And I said, Why not? Okay. I said, Because we own international equities, and she's like, We do? And then like, I'm like, yeah, we have 15% of our money in international equities. And she's like, uh, well, what stocks do we own? I'm like, I don't know. So I was like, I went to the fund A V G E and I kind of drilled down into the um the the funds of funds, I guess. Yes, correct.

SPEAKER_05 14:19

They hold they hold their other uh exchange, that's the Avantis Global Equity Fund, and they they hold other funds that hold those international stocks. That's correct.

SPEAKER_01 14:29

Yeah, so I looked at those stocks and I'm like, so I told her, and she and she's like, and she's like, well, what's your question? I was like, well, it's about uh currency exchange rates. Is that a risk that we should be monitoring, or should we I don't know, calculate that into you know how much international stocks we own? So anyway, that's my question. What's the what is currency exchange risk? And should we take this into our you know overall investment strategy?

SPEAKER_05 14:57

The short answer is the good news is no. Uh the better answer is um the fact is the people that are running the money for you at Avantis, they do consider that. And I'll give you an example, by the way. Um in the last basic year, the United States dollar is down about 2.3 percent uh compared to global current other currencies it's compared against. This is just a broad average. So it's gone down a little bit, right? Um and and but that's a pretty mild change in a year and a few months. Um in in in emerging markets, for example, you get places like Argentina that can have wild swings, right, when you have massive inflation or they have some other sort of economic calamity. So emerging markets can have a lot of impact. The good news is um, again, the people that are handling that money for you at Avantis are paying attention to this. And also the other good news is in a general way, those currencies kind of work their way out. In other words, it's it's a diversifier. It's another way to sort of not just be focused on one marketplace. And by the way, your wife, I think, correctly asked, you know, why are we owning those? Well, let me give you another example. Um, in Japan, it turns out that people have about 90% of their money invested in Japan. Uh, wouldn't surprise you, right? But going back 1990 through, I think it was the end of 2024, uh, Japanese investors basically broke even. Uh, the Nikkei didn't make any money in that whole period of time. This is why we believe in international diversification. I don't know how old you are, but I'm old enough to remember 1990, and I'm old enough to remember how the Japanese were dominating sort of the business world, if you would. They were telling us how to manage our companies. They were here buying all kinds of things, including famous golf courses and the like. Uh, it was all about Japan. And it turned out that no, the next 30 plus years we're not. This is why we want to be diversified in all these other economies and currencies. So the real, the real way to be invested is to actually buy companies that operate in these other marketplaces, because then you're getting currency exposure, you're getting exposure to other companies that you just don't get if you only own the U.S. So back to your original question. No, this is nothing for you to worry about. You should be invested internationally, and worrying kind of day to day or even week to week or even month to month, frankly, year to year, about currencies is just not something you need to pay attention to.

SPEAKER_01 17:27

Yeah, that's what I thought. I I was just I think I was just overthinking things. And I'm a long-term investor, so I know I'm in this for the long game. Uh, and I, like you said, I kind of want to be diversified, but I want to be able to manage some of those risks the best I can. So that's my question.

Portfolio Diversification Strategies

SPEAKER_05 17:44

Yeah, no, the bigger, the bigger issue, of course, is always stock to bond ratio. Then the next issue would be properly diversified in equities. The fact that you're using a very fine exchange traded fund, AVGE, is well diversified in equities. It has a tilt, if you will, to owning more small, more value. There's some other factors, profitability, quality, those things in there. That is really an outstanding portfolio for the long haul and one that I think you can rely on well into your future.

SPEAKER_01 18:15

Yeah. Hey, so when I started first investing back in the early 90s or late 90s, um, you know, when I bought US companies, it was kind of like a US market. But now that these companies are, you know, worldwide, right? So Apple, whatever, McDonald's. Microsoft.

SPEAKER_05 18:32

Sure.

SPEAKER_01 18:32

Exactly.

SPEAKER_05 18:33

Yep, NVIDIA.

SPEAKER_01 18:34

So could the argument be made that if I own Microsoft or if I own this AVGE and is Microsoft Microsoft considered a US company, but it's it's international.

SPEAKER_05 18:45

Yeah, they do sell a lot of products overseas. It's a great question. Study done by dimensional funds a number of years found a number of years ago found that the answer to that is no for the following reason. You really want exposure to those local economies. And the only way to get exposure to those local economies is to own the companies that operate in those places. While Microsoft sells, I forget what percentage of its software overseas. Um great companies, of course, are international in nature, but they don't get the specific exposure, if you will, to that local economy. We also take your written questions, which we love the stuff. Yeah, on one hand, it feels like to get here. On the other hand, you really want to be extremely Seattle area areas to get to data. To get the growth, the potential there, and to kind of get the leveling out of it. Robert Wright says from North Carolina. He said I've recently begun listening to your podcast and appreciate the consistent, solid advice. I read that Warren Buffett is underweight financials because he thinks it's overvalued due to momentum and euphoria rather than economics.

SPEAKER_01 19:57

Which is an academic thing and go across the country. Should an equity portfolio be the market in Virginia somewhere.

SPEAKER_05 20:04

You may ask primarily about geographic and me to shift the equity portfolio to market weight to park. So for background, until I retired. And then my retirement I am a little more hands-on before retirement. My risk tolerance was all. So should an equity portfolio be weighted to the market or to something else?

SPEAKER_03 20:46

It sounds to me like you've actually created a more aggressive portfolio. When you say you're less aggressive, your portfolio is more dangerous than what you had before with just indexes and target date funds. There is that we are aware of no evidence, no evidence, no evidence that overweighting sectors improves performance. Overweighting sectors. Now, that said, there is copious evidence, really robust data to support overweighting a few things. Not sectors. Stop with the sectors. We like to play the sectors because we look at, we're going, well, technology seems overvalued. Well, how do you know it's overvalued? How do you know what I mean five years ago? Did you expect the explosion in AI we had? Thirty years ago, did you expect the internet would be what it is now? No, you didn't. You can't be the judge of it. You're going to make mistakes because you're reacting viscerally, you're reacting emotionally. You've got to rely on the data. The data says here are the things. Here are the things that have consistent. Helped you out. One, owning the sun. Okay. Right. Two. Owning the planet. US and international. Three. More value. Four. More small. Then there are like five, six, and seven, which are kind of getting into the weeds. Like more profitable. Momentum. Those kinds of things.

SPEAKER_05 22:28

Quality. You know, okay, there's a couple things you're doing really well. The current ratio between the US and international, 65 US, 35% international, that's pretty good. Um, which is great. Uh number two is it sounds like you're paying attention to cost because you've been an index fund user, so that's really good. The bad news is when and and I didn't know Warren Buffett underweighted financial, but didn't he retire anyway? Um and I think Warren, by the way, would admit he doesn't know anything more about the future than anyone else. That concerns me that your underweight technology and overweight healthcare, financials, and utilities. I'm with Don. I don't think that makes sense. Um I would I would only buy any difference between the actual market weight and anything else based on a hundred years of data, not what the expectation is, because no one knows anything more about the future than anybody else starting one second from now.

The Case for Market Weighting

SPEAKER_03 23:22

As a matter of fact, see, Warren Buffett is doing kind of what you're doing. Warren Buffett likes to study things and overthink things. And at times that's been very successful, but ma his main mantra has just been value by value. But good point. What he the advice he gives to us as just regular old investors is far different. He's never said individual investors should try to overweight or underweight sectors or buy this stock or that stock. He said individual investors should just buy the market. That's all. Just buy it. Which you were doing before. So you should do it again. Or value and small and a few other things. But value and small are easy. You can buy value and small uh ETFs easily. You can buy ETFs that actually overweight to value and small at very low expense ratios for what they're doing.

SPEAKER_05 24:23

So it's good stuff. Uh from Bullard, Texas, Francisco writes us, Tom and Don, I have a portfolio of$1.5 million. That's$900,000 in an individual retirement account, and$600,000 in a Roth IRA. So I want to make sure we differentiate between traditional and IRA. Traditional and Roth, because Kenny might correct me.

SPEAKER_03 24:44

Um because the gold will come free out of both. Oh, wait, no, it won't.

SPEAKER_05 24:48

85% in stocks, including 71% large cap, 26% mid-cap, and 2% small cap, all in U.S. market, uh 22% growth, 78% value. That's interesting. Large cap value is where he's primarily stationed. Um 10% in bonds, 5% cash, all at Vanguard with an average expense ratio of 0.06. That's cheap. Um portfolio is income-oriented with about$42,000. That it's what he says. Is this a good fit for a 69-year-old retiree couple collecting$60K for Social Security? Thanks you so much for the work that you do. 10% bonds? 10% bonds, 5% cash.

SPEAKER_03 25:34

Wow. That's an aggressive portfolio. Heavily weighted towards large cap. Heavily. All in U.S. I don't know what the mid-cap thing is. It would sure be a lot nicer if you'd just skipped the mid and gone all small with that money.

SPEAKER_05 25:53

He's under he's way underweight small at two point.

SPEAKER_03 25:55

Way underweight small. Way underweight fixed income. Way underweight. Uh and I know, I know, I know. We look back and we go, but fixed income doesn't do anything. That's the whole idea. It's well, okay. It went down because it had 40 years of going up. I mean, really, bonds went up for 40 years. Bonds should never go up in value. But they did for 40 years almost. They had to give some of that back because interest rates fell for almost 40 years straight. That's right. Guess what? When interest rates fall, the value of bonds goes up. But we don't expect that in our scenarios. We're not saying bonds should make you capital gains. Bonds should just pay an income that stabilizes the rest of your portfolio. And this is why I sometimes some I I Tom and I have a disagreement on this. Not a big one. Because of the fact that bond funds fluctuate in value, they give people this argument. Well, but they go up and down. Then buy a C D ladder. Then you won't have any fluctuation, zero fluctuation in value as long as you don't sell your CDs.

SPEAKER_05 27:12

And the only counterargument really to that is over the long haul, bonds have appreciated a little bit to make you just a tad more than CDs going back 80 years. But you paid for it with the volatility.

SPEAKER_03 27:32

The market prices risk into the any security that has it. And if there isn't a modicum of additional risk, then you are likely, likely to eventually be rewarded with additional return. Likely to eventually, but no guarantees.

SPEAKER_05 27:51

No guarantees. Before we let you get away, Francisco, I do want to mention one other thing that concerns me because you talk about income-oriented portfolio of$42,000 a year. We would rather see you in retirement if you're generating money that you need to spend due a total return process. In other words, you build the right portfolio, you rebalance it, you take take money out of it that way. It's more sustainable than having a high income. Because when you say high income, that suggests it's a dividend type portfolio. Um which again limits the diversification, oftentimes means you're taking more risk than you need to. And the fact that you're 78% in value, which is that's a pretty high tilt to value when you look at the overall market. So this is not ideal in that regard. So yeah, there's some work still to be done.

Strategies for Retirees: Income vs. Growth

SPEAKER_03 28:42

I'm thinking if I saw the portfolio itself on a on a uh statement that I would go, hodgepodge, I just think I might say that. I don't know. It just kind of gives me that feeling. I don't know what's in the portfolio, but uh it needs a little work. Congrats on getting to 1.5 million, though. That's a great achievement. Yep. You're a good saver. You're just doing it a little wacky, but not dangerously wacky. Oh, and by the way, you and your wife should go take the risk quiz at talkingrealmoney.com. That's gonna tell you what your stock to bond allocation should probably be for your temporary.

SPEAKER_05 29:19

Or at least be an indicator thereof.

SPEAKER_03 29:20

Yeah, it's gonna be an indicator.

unknown 29:22

Yeah.

SPEAKER_03 29:22

Thank you all for listening. Thank those of you who participate. We appreciate you. You participate by going to talkingrealmoney.com, clicking on the ask a question and asking us a question. It's that easy. And by the way, Francisco and others, if you would like to have a real live 100% fiduciary who never sells gold ever, look over your portfolio and say, okay, this is what needs tweaking. This is a great thing, this is a bad thing, you know, do this. And you don't want to be sold anything, you don't want somebody who's gonna be pitchy, and you don't want to pay anything. Well, you know, like some attorneys will do pro bono work for people, we do pro bono work for our listeners. Just go to talkingrealmoney.com, click on the button that says meet an advisor. And as Thomas said, he's got slots available in his busy schedule. He'll spend a little time with you, even. And he's one of those fee-only advisors.

SPEAKER_05 30:29

I don't have any gold either, by the way. Yeah.

SPEAKER_03 30:31

So how much gold? You put a lot of gold in uh in just your brother's portfolio, though, right? Exactly. The one I don't like. The one I don't like. Oh. Do they listen?

SPEAKER_05 30:42

Oh, probably not.

SPEAKER_03 30:43

Well, they're gonna be wondering which brother you don't like.

SPEAKER_05 30:46

Is it him? It won't be hard to figure that out when you go look at your portfolio.

Closing Thoughts on Financial Wisdom

SPEAKER_03 30:51

Anyway, go to talkingrealmoney.com, tell a friend or two or ten about what we do here because the more the merrier, and we truly do appreciate you uh and hope you'll continue listening to us Talking Real Money.

SPEAKER_02 31:05

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