Emerging Markets Matter

SPEAKER_00 0:05

You're gonna do a really great financial future. Tom and Don are talking real money.

Introduction to Emerging Markets

SPEAKER_02 0:12

Talking real money continues with another really thrilling episode about a topic that hasn't been covered on Talking Real Money in a very, very, very, very, very long time. We try to cover these kinds of things, these important areas of investing that you should uh have in your portfolio, but you know, there's so much stuff we can't cover it all all the time, and new people are coming on. So it we were reminded of this to speak about this because of the passing of a proponent of this type of investing, the magnificent Mark Mobius.

SPEAKER_03 0:52

Which is a name that you're if you have if you've only been an investor for 20 years, you will not know that name.

SPEAKER_02 0:58

Unlikely. If you're no. If you're most people if you're most people Alright, fair enough. If you're 95% of the uh population of the earth, 99% of the population of the earth, you have no clue who that is. If you're Tom Cock, of course you do.

SPEAKER_03 1:14

Because I've been around for a long time. Plus, he likes really obscure information. Well, that's true too. Uh Mark was a guy uh that that studied uh was a you know a PhD. I mean, this is he didn't just stumble onto the guy. Yeah, he was, you know, he and and and his whole shtick, if you will, was telling people why they need to invest in emerging markets. Now, oftentimes when I talk to people about investing in emerging markets, it's a tough sell. They they think, wait, those are kind of like China, uh, India, Brazil, it used to be Russia. We don't invest there anymore. Um, you know, places in the farm.

SPEAKER_02 1:56

Is there anything left to invest in in Russia? I good question.

Mark Mobius: The Bald Eagle

SPEAKER_03 2:02

Uh I I just heard a joke about Russia, but I'm not gonna resay it. Anyway, the point is Mark spent his career doing that. Um, he was I don't this is this unkind? He because he had a shaved head, they his nickname was Bald Eagle. I I don't know how to take that.

SPEAKER_02 2:17

They also called him the Indiana Jones of emerging markets.

SPEAKER_03 2:20

I saw that. Yeah. Or someone else said, Mark Mobius is to emerging market investing, what Colonel Sanders is to fried chicken. Not sure if that's good or bad, anyway.

SPEAKER_02 2:30

Given the fact that most people never think about emerging markets investing, that's why you don't know who this man was.

Importance of Emerging Markets

SPEAKER_03 2:37

Yeah, and so and he joined Franklin Templeton, again, a company today that would be, you know, unless you've been around for 30 plus years, you probably don't know them. Joined in 1987 and uh directed people towards international opportunities. Over his tenure, he managed the group's uh closed-end fund, the Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust, which they say returned an average of 13.4% a year from 1989 until his retirement, um, beating the index. And it's always about beating the index, right? Doesn't but it doesn't talk about how much risk you took to be anyway. Well, that that's all fine. Here's the reason that I wanted to discuss this, and by the way, he he went to these places and looked at these companies 250 to 300 days a year visiting factories, local distributors, and you know what Dr. Fom and Dr. French are gonna say. They're gonna say that's meaningless. Yeah, they're gonna say, but that's fine. And you know, he told people, look, you really need to um really need to invest in these places um and and have some of your money exposed to emerging markets. Now, we're going to agree with him there. No question. I think you should. And I looked it up. According to a couple of different places, the average investor has about three percent of their money exposed to emerging markets, right? These riskier developing, sometimes is the word they use, countries. Um, and and I just had a great chat with someone yesterday asking about well, can't you just get exposure to those if you own companies like Microsoft because they sell products there? And the answer to that has been, and this is not from us, this is from dimensional funds that did the work around this. No, that you need to be exposed to those local economies and those local currencies to really get the potential growth. And and that's the bottom line about why you want to have some of your money exposed to emerging markets. I would say if you're doing a full 100% of your money's in stocks, I'd think somewhere around 10% of your money should be in emerging markets. Because that's about what it makes up in the global world in terms of the value of firms.

SPEAKER_02 4:38

Yeah, and if if you had invested in emerging markets in the dimensional emerging markets fund, uh uh 20, I'm sorry, 30 years ago, back in 1996, beginning of 1996, let's go back to 1995, uh, you would today uh have uh ten times the money you invested. Ten thousand dolls then would be worth almost a hundred thousand dollars today over thirty years.

SPEAKER_03 5:06

Well, I can give you better than that according to IFA.com, where they have all these returns up there all the time. According to them, if you go back 98 years and three months, which I don't know how they do in emerging markets because I don't know how they find those numbers, but they they do, apparently. And they say they say the return there is 12.8% annualized, which is far more than the U.S. markets.

Portfolio Diversification Strategies

SPEAKER_02 5:28

Isn't that interesting, though, that it's slightly less than what we uh previously talked about over that same period with uh small cap value, U.S. small cap value. Exactly. But it's another asset class, and the reason you own it is because you're you're you want to add those more aggressive asset classes to help boost your yield, but you want to diversify the heck out of the portfolio so that they don't always move at the same time, and therefore the volatility is not as high. The bumps don't feel as violent.

SPEAKER_03 5:57

You're getting exposure to potentially faster growth, more ups and downs, right? I mean, you can remember the Asian crisis of 1997 and the market panic in Russia in '98, all these things. And they're far the swings are far greater in these places, right? Because it's riskier. Uh, but you do get the diversification, Don. That's exactly it. You do get alternative currencies that you're investing in, right? Exposure to companies that you don't get if you just own the U.S. and if or even uh develop markets for that uh that matter. So this is an incredibly important asset. I guess the bottom line for me is most of the time when we do a portfolio review, and we do these, you talk about them, where we take all of your the stuff you hold, we we show you how diversified you are, how much risk you're taking, how much you're paying others, all that stuff. People love it. But I would say nine out of ten times, maybe even higher, maybe 95%, people have very, very, very little exposure to emerging markets. That's backwards. You should have plenty of exposure to these things that have high growth potential. Are they riskier? Yes. Did they feel really bad when things go? Absolutely. But you don't put all your eggs in that basket, you put a good number of them, so you're exposed to that potential. Growing middle class, uh, you know, companies that you again that that have tremendous growth potential, potential, and you want to have some of your money. So I again, this is a reason when you're doing your asset allocation to be so careful. It it sounds so easy. I just I bought the S P 500, but you're missing, you're missing a lot of companies, certainly in the United States, but you're missing massive, not just developed countries and but developing countries.

Investing in All-Encompassing Funds

SPEAKER_02 7:38

Yeah, but I want to I want to I want to temper your enthusiasm a little bit because you basically said critically important part. It's just, you know. We throw out a lot of critically important parts of portfolios. You need small cap, you need value, you need international, you need small international, you need real estate, you need emerging markets, you you need a lot of these things. But to build a portfolio with all of these pieces and parts can be a lot of work. And then managing it, even more work. So if this is the kind of thing you're doing on your own, this is why we bore you to tears by saying just by AVGE, the Avantis Global Equity Fund, or just by DFAW, the dimensional All World Markets Fund, because within those funds, they have already proportioned the assets between large and small and value and growth and developed and emerging and US and international markets. They've they're doing it for you so that you don't have to. This is why our push towards these kinds of all-encompassing products, because I can tell you it's unlikely you're going to build your own and do it well.

SPEAKER_03 8:52

I was just going to look up out of curiosity what percentage of AVGE is in emerging markets, because I'd be curious to know how much exposure they put. And they do oftentimes have a U.S. bias as well. Uh with the Oh, they have a U.S.

SPEAKER_02 9:07

bias. They do have a slight, and they admit they have a U.S. bias. They say the reason they have a U.S. bias is because you guys want it.

SPEAKER_03 9:16

You see, but they're looking at AVGE is almost 10% of the portfolio in emerging markets. So good for them both.

SPEAKER_02 9:22

Uh by the way, a 10% a 10% uh number is good.

unknown 9:27

Yep.

Listener Questions: Currency Exchange Risk

SPEAKER_02 9:28

That's that's a very good number. So you're getting a good exposure there. And the and so why go to all the trouble of trying to build this portfolio when you can do it on your own? I mean, you with just one portfolio, like the Avantis thing. So anyway, uh another another topic we haven't covered in a while, something to bear in mind. And uh if you have something you want to ask us, we want to give you the opportunity to do that. And you can call us at 855-935-talk and leave your question, or you can go online to talkingrealmoney.com and type your question or record your question. If you record those questions at talkingrealmoney.com, they become part of the Friday QA podcast that I do. Otherwise, Tom or I will get back to some of you and talk to you on the phone like this.

SPEAKER_03 10:17

Chad calls us from Alexandria, Virginia. I think I have this right too. Uh, I believe the high school in Alexandria is the where they based the story, the story came from from the movie Remember the Titans, which good lord was 20-something years ago. I think I have that. Is that right? Do you know that, Chad, or not?

SPEAKER_01 10:37

I don't know. I I just moved here like seven years ago.

SPEAKER_03 10:40

So you're off the hook for that piece of local trivia then. Uh that just that for some reason it comes to mind. Um, my mom grew up in Washington, D.C., so I know the area a little bit, but I wouldn't I wouldn't pretend to know it very well. But that was one thing that I I I thought I knew. At any rate, it's not about me, as I'm told regularly, um, at home and on the show. It's about you, Chad. How can we help you today?

SPEAKER_01 11:03

Uh so I had a question about international equities. Um, but I got a little small story before we begin, if you don't mind. Absolutely. But anyway, uh, so I wrote my question in, right, on talking real money, and it was selected, and I was like, hey, I told my wife I was gonna be on this podcast. And she's like, Oh, that's great. Uh, what's what kind of question are you gonna ask on this on this podcast? And I was like, Well, it's a financial question and it's about international equities. And she said, Why are you asking that question? And I said, Why is that you might answer, but okay. I said, Because we own international equities, and she's like, We do? And then I'm like, I'm like, Yeah, we have 15% of our money in international equities, and she's like, uh, well, what stocks do we own? I'm like, I don't know. So I was like, I went to the fund A V G E and I kind of drilled down into the um the the funds of funds, I guess. Yeah, it's correct.

SPEAKER_03 12:06

They hold they hold their other uh exchange that's the Avantis Global Equity Fund, and they they hold other funds that hold those international stocks. That's correct.

SPEAKER_01 12:16

Yeah, so I looked at those stocks and I'm like, so I told her, and she and she's like, and she's like, well, what's your question? I was like, well, it's about uh currency exchange rates. Is that a risk that we should be monitoring, or should we I don't know, calculate that into you know how much international stocks we own? So anyway, that's my question. What's the what is currency exchange risk? And should we take this into our you know overall investment strategy?

Diversification Beyond the U.S.

SPEAKER_03 12:44

The short answer is the good news is no. Uh the better answer is um the fact is the people that are running the money for you at Avantis, they do consider that. And I'll give you an example, by the way. Um in the last basic year, the United States dollar is down about 2.3 percent uh compared to global current other currencies it's compared against. There's just a broad average. So it's gone down a little bit, right? Um and and but that's a pretty mild change in a year and a few months. Um in in in emerging markets, for example, you get places like Argentina that can have wild swings, right, when you have massive inflation or they have some other sort of economic calamity. So emerging markets can have a lot of impact. The good news is um, again, the people that are handling that money for you at Avantis are paying attention to this. And also the other good news is in a general way, those currencies kind of work their way out. In other words, it's it's a diversifier. It's another way to sort of not just be focused on one marketplace. And by the way, your wife, I think, correctly asked, you know, why are we owning those? Well, let me give you another example. Um, in Japan, it turns out that people have about 90% of their money invested in Japan. Uh, wouldn't surprise you, right? But going back 1990 through, I think it was the end of 2024, uh, Japanese investors basically broke even. Uh, the Nikkei didn't make any money in that whole period of time. This is why we believe in international diversification. I don't know how old you are, but I'm old enough to remember 1990, and I'm old enough to remember how the Japanese were dominating sort of the business world, if you would. They were telling us how to manage our companies. They were here buying all kinds of things, including famous golf courses and the like. Uh, it was all about Japan. And it turned out that no, the next 30 plus years we're not. This is why we want to be diversified in all these other economies and currencies. So the real, the real way to be invested is to actually buy companies that operate in these other marketplaces, because then you're getting currency exposure, you're getting exposure to other companies that you just don't get if you only own the U.S. So back to your original question. No, this is nothing for you to worry about. You should be invested internationally and worrying kind of day to day or even week to week or even month to month, frankly, year to year, about currencies is just not something you need to pay attention to.

SPEAKER_01 15:14

Yeah, that's what I thought. I I was just I think I was just overthinking things. And I'm a long-term investor, so I know I'm in this for the long game. Uh, and I, like you said, I kind of want to be diversified, but I want to be able to manage some of those risks the best I can. So that's my question.

Understanding Your Investment Strategy

SPEAKER_03 15:31

Yeah, no, the bigger, the bigger issue, of course, is always stock to bond ratio. Then the next issue would be properly diversified in equities. The fact that you're using a very fine exchange traded fund, AVGE, is well diversified in equities. It has a tilt, if you will, to owning more small, more value. There's some other factors, profitability, quality, those things in there, that is really an outstanding portfolio for the long haul and one that I think you can rely on well into your future.

SPEAKER_01 16:02

Yeah. Hey, so when I started first investing back in the early 90s or late 90s, um, you know, when I bought US companies, it was kind of like a US market. But now that these companies are, you know, worldwide, right? So Apple, whatever, McDonald's, Microsoft, sure. Exactly.

SPEAKER_03 16:20

Yep, NVIDIA.

SPEAKER_01 16:21

So could the argument be made that if I own Microsoft or if I own this A V G E and is Microsoft, Microsoft is considered a US company, but it's it's international.

SPEAKER_03 16:31

Yeah, they do sell a lot of products overseas. It's a great question. Study done by dimensional funds a number of years found a number of years ago found that the answer to that is no for the following reason. You really want exposure to those local economies. And the only way to get exposure to those local economies is to own the companies that operate in those places. While Microsoft sells, I forget what percentage of its software overseas. Um, great companies, of course, are international in nature, but they don't get the specific exposure, if you will, to that local economy, the currency, the kind of the growth, all that stuff. And you really want to make sure you're doing that because it's a great diversifier. So, yeah, on one hand, it feels like, well, yeah, I own international firms. On the other hand, you really want to be exposed to those local areas to get to get the growth, the potential there, and to kind of get the leveling out of ups and downs of global markets.

SPEAKER_01 17:28

Okay. All right. My only follow-up question is um a few years ago, I started listening to you guys, uh, Don and Tom are talking real money. And when I first started listening on the podcast, Don was on the road, like in his RV. Is he ever going to get back in that thing and go across country again?

SPEAKER_03 17:47

I don't know. I think it's stuck along the roadside in Virginia somewhere. You may want to go look it up. Uh the short answer to that is probably not. I invite him, of course, every summer to come and stay at our place uh where he can park it and uh hang out. But I don't know that he's gonna actually pull that around. I think, I think, I think you should send another question and say, Don, I want to talk to you about your next road trip and see what he says.

SPEAKER_01 18:10

Okay. Can it is it a tree question or should I talk it into the mic?

SPEAKER_03 18:14

You should talk it into the mic because he'll absolutely love that, Chad. It'd be fabulous. Great questions, all, and thank you for being part of Talking Real Money. Yes. Thank you. I appreciate it.

SPEAKER_02 18:25

And Tom really loves doing those calls. He does. He has more fun with those. He has almost as much fun with those as he does uh printing up your questions that you send in at talkingrealmoney.com that get printed on pieces of paper. And uh for some reason that makes him very happy. He likes crumpling them up between his fingers and making you know old radio host noises from the past. Let's not say old. Well, he's dead, the guy I was thinking of. I know who you're thinking of. Yeah, you know who I'm thinking of. Yes, I do. Because he used to always do that. Do you have paper in front of you? I do. I have paper. Would you like to read us a question?

SPEAKER_03 19:02

I'd love to read a question. Thank you for asking me. So kind of you.

SPEAKER_02 19:06

I really appreciate it.

SPEAKER_03 19:12

From Parker, Colorado. I don't know Parker.

SPEAKER_02 19:14

Do you know Parker is southeast of Denver slightly, uh, between Denver and Colorado Springs, closer to Denver.

SPEAKER_03 19:21

Peter writes us, I have a small Fidelity account of about uh$17,000 that's in 12 stocks. I earmark$500 a month and try and decide what I should invest in. I'm 75. It's not part of my retirement per se. It's just extra money I'm playing with. I would like to see it grow over time. Looking at a five to seven year plan. I have 13 stocks. I'm gonna give you a couple of them. Okay. Um I don't know these. I didn't look them up prior to the discussion. Okay. USB. Don't they make a cord that plugs into your computer or something? No, that's US Bank Corp. Oh, US Bank Corp. Okay, I should know that one. Um B-I-Z-D.

SPEAKER_02 19:59

B-I-Z-D? B-I-Z-t that's a Van Eck income ETF. Um, it's a stock. Weird. Um, it's an ETF. B-I-Z-D?

SPEAKER_03 20:08

Did you say he says 13 stocks?

SPEAKER_02 20:10

Did you say B-I-Z-D?

SPEAKER_03 20:11

B-I-Z-D.

SPEAKER_02 20:12

Well, he's considering it a stock because it buy he buys it like a stock.

SPEAKER_03 20:16

Okay. Found that.

SPEAKER_02 20:17

Oh, by the way, the ready for the expense ratio on that one? How much?

SPEAKER_03 20:24

I don't think I've ever seen one this high. I truly. No, remember the one time we saw the one with 20. So it was hard to do. Okay, hard. Was that an ETF? No, that was a mutual fund.

SPEAKER_02 20:34

That was a mutual fund. This is an ETF, dude. This is this is an ETF. And and 20% of the portfolio is in cash, and they do all kinds of 13%.

SPEAKER_03 20:48

Good work if you're the manager.

SPEAKER_02 20:51

Sell that one, sir. Okay.

SPEAKER_03 20:53

L O T. I'm assuming this is a boating company, maybe the one that constructed the Titanic.

SPEAKER_02 20:57

No. That's an iShares floating rate bond fund. So he's buying ETFs.

SPEAKER_03 21:02

Okay, one more, because I'm getting the pattern here. Uh L V is in victory, H as in happy, D is in Dawn.

SPEAKER_02 21:11

Uh he's watching C N B C Yeah. No, he has. Because this is the Franklin U.S. low volatility, high dividend index ETF.

SPEAKER_03 21:20

Oh, Peter, Peter, Peter, Peter, Peter.

SPEAKER_02 21:22

Um what's with the complexity? I don't know. Because he's been watching CNBC. These sound like the kinds of things where they interview the manager on CNBC. They got to fill the time somehow. I I that's it strikes me that that's where these these are coming from.

SPEAKER_03 21:38

And then he adds, like you say, nothing fancy, just basic investment. What would you suggest? What would you suggest I invest in each month at$500 a month? I think we just mentioned one fund that owns all of these very well.

SPEAKER_02 21:50

But you see, here's an interesting little thing. He's got these income things. So he's saying on one hand, This is play money, but on the other hand, he's saying I want low volatility. So I'm I'm I don't know what I am. I truly don't know I I hate to recommend or suggest anything to this person. I truly do. Because this is such a mess. It's truly a mess. And he says he has 13 of these?

SPEAKER_03 22:25

That's what he says. I didn't read them all to you because only someone's. Please, no, no, no.

SPEAKER_02 22:29

Just read read me more.

SPEAKER_03 22:30

No. Okay, one more.

SPEAKER_02 22:32

And having too much. As in Nancy.

SPEAKER_03 22:34

Hold on, as in Larry. Y as in year. N-L-Y. N L Y? N L Y. Why not? I guess.

SPEAKER_02 22:42

Are you saying N-L-Y? That's what I'm saying. Oh, Annalie Capital Management. What are they? I don't even know what they are. Apparently that's a stock. Yeah, it's a stock. Um don't know anything about them. I I I I This is a mortgage. Oh, it's a mortgage read. I just found them. Okay, see? What did I say? This is a mess. This is just a bunch of random ideas that somebody got watching TV. I swear.

SPEAKER_03 23:19

We'll have to wait. He'll I no doubt he'll write us back after hearing this and saying, no, no, no, no, you miss completely misunderstood my strategy here.

SPEAKER_02 23:25

Oh no, there is no strategy. This is a zero strategy portfolio. I'm sorry. There is no discernible strategy. There's nothing here that fits with you know that song, one of these things is not like the other? Well, all of these things are not like the other. They don't make sense. The only thing that they have in common is that they sound like somebody's hot idea.

SPEAKER_03 23:56

If you're gonna have a hot idea, why not have like the BWET where you're betting on the the futures of the uh the tankers in the Gulf, right?

SPEAKER_02 24:05

I mean, Oh, I thought we were doing a Bitcoin thing. Oh, please. That was uh ladies and gentlemen, please do not take Tom seriously.

SPEAKER_03 24:12

I no, I'm I am serious. If you're gonna buy the hot thing, that was that has been the best performing ETF year to date until recently. Okay.

SPEAKER_02 24:20

Well, and these aren't hot, they're just funky. Yeah, it just it's just I I would I would unload this whole thing and maybe maybe just put my$17,000 in a nice seven-year target date fund. Do 2035. There you go. Bing done. Because you'd be 82 by then. Yeah.

SPEAKER_03 24:39

Bing, done.

SPEAKER_02 24:39

Well, because basically said about a five to seven year time frame, right? Yeah. Did you say that? So that would be the the the the 2035 uh uh target date fund.

SPEAKER_03 24:49

I wanna I want to add one thing here. He used the word play.

SPEAKER_02 24:55

But none of this is play. Yeah, if it's play, then a A-V-G-E.

SPEAKER_03 25:00

Yeah, and this is gets back though to purpose. We s we don't spend enough, we spend some time on this. Don and I have no play money. Well, unless we're playing Monopoly.

SPEAKER_02 25:12

Um that doesn't that doesn't look real.

SPEAKER_03 25:15

Yeah, we don't we don't have anything where we're like, I'm gonna try to hit a thousand, you know. We don't buy that because your money is your money, is your money, and one day maybe somebody else's money. Why would you play with any of it? Why would you think, well, you know, I'm helping it at home run when the likelihood is you won't. Part two is this is such a hodgepodgery that uh that we can't even classify it as a portfolio. So no, we don't we don't mess around with stuff like this. We don't buy individual stocks, all those kind of things that we spend a good deal of time talking about.

Wrap-Up and Future Discussions

SPEAKER_02 25:46

Yeah, and when you have$17,000 and you're putting$500 in, it's it's just gonna keep making the mess worse. It's just gonna get worse. This is just not it's not a portfolio. Uh it's a bunch of strange ideas. That's all. That's all I got. That's all I got for you. I think that's all we've got for the show, isn't it? I think that's about it. Pulled apart. We should probably put this one away. We'll put this one down. Time to put the show down. Hey, uh, thanks for being here. We really appreciate you. Oh, and and by the way, we have made the strategic decision. We have a strategy for this podcast. We are going to continue to do the thing that podcasts have done so well, and that is be audio only. I read an article today, uh recently in the last couple weeks in the Wall Street Journal uh about podcast listeners starting to get upset because their favorite podcasts are now, because it's all the rage, becoming video podcasts, and they're listening to them in their car, and people are referring to images. And then driving into a tree. And then no, no, they're they're referring to images and they just don't like the podcast because they don't know what anyway. We're gonna be a good old-fashioned audio podcast. We believe in the power of audio.

SPEAKER_03 27:06

We had one of our former partners suggest that we do this all in video. We did for a while and nobody watched, so it didn't work to be fair.

SPEAKER_02 27:16

Yeah. Well, and they're still there, those old video ones, but no one's watched this, the the audio, we get a lot of listeners. We're uh we're well over, we're tracking it well over two million downloads a year now. And they're not all my mom because she's been gone for a long time. So uh keep listening, keep telling people to listen. Thank you so much for that. And if you have questions, go to talkingrealmoney.com, click the button that says ask a question, call us at 855-935-Talk. And if you have one of these messy portfolios like that, like the guy in Parker, here's what you probably ought to do is sit down with one of our fiduciary advisors and let them tell you what's wrong and how you could probably do it better, and you're not gonna be charged anything, and you're not gonna get a high-pressure sales pitch. Tom and I absolutely promise, cross our heart. Okay. Are we good now?

SPEAKER_03 28:11

I think we're very good. I think that was exceptional. Thank you.

SPEAKER_02 28:14

Here's what's gonna happen. In a day or two, or maybe if there's a weekend in there, three days, we're gonna be right back here doing this thing we do, which, well, we call talking real money.

SPEAKER_00 28:27

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